CMFdrdm
At best I won’t “know” when the bear (if it is a bear rather than normal,less than 20% correction)is over.
All I will have is a statistics probability that it is close to over, or in the early stages of the next bull. Close either time wise or price wise, sometimes but not always both. Something with a 75% probability is good enough for me but it still means a 25% chance of being wrong.
And there is always the possibility of Black Swan event, a meteor hitting NY etc, something that can not be factored in. By nature so rare that odds can’t be determined.
Since the banking system is not at risk I would guess this bear would be a more normal cyclical type ,not a 1929, early 1930’s 2008 super bear. but that is just a guess, the joker in the deck being that nobody has experience in what happens after prolonged zero interest rates. This must have resulted in some companies borrowing more than they can payback and some big investors going too for out on the risk cure.
Economists can’t predict normal recessions and this one may or may not be normal. There’s not any proof yet that we are even starting a recession beyond market action itself.