BRK vs. AMZN vs. SPY

5 Years

BRK + 56%
AMZN + 55%
SPY + 49%

tecmo

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I imagine that would look interesting in a chart.

Never ceases to amaze me what ‘patience’ produces. Yes, its a single point in time, but if extracted out ‘the market’ and its individual components don’t appear to fall very far from each other.

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Here is the chart

If the old boards were open I am sure we could find posts from late 2018 screaming that we were all idoits for not dumping BRK and getting into AMZN.

tecmo

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15 year return

AMZN: 1790%
S&P: 254%
BRK: 209%

Dollar cost average. Get rich slowly. Enjoy life.

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Do you have the 20 year return comparison? TIA

I still own (most) of my 1997 AMZN shares, up a gazillion percentage points, cost basis $0.10, changed my life, so I can only chuckle at any comparison to BRK or S&P, without reference to the long term. BRK investors like the long term, right?? I have owned BRK.b since early '09 so no complaints, but AMZN was a once-in-a-lifetime, and I’m truly grateful.

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AMZN: 7800%
BRK: 556%
S&P: 541%

Abel will not be able to match Buffett and BRK size is a huge anchor. Ignore the echo chamber here. How many long and effusive posts about BRK and Buffett 's genius did you read and hear in last 20 years ?

Better to dollar cost average in S&P going forward. Take advantage of more TSLAs, AMZNs and GOOGs in in next 20 years.

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So it looks like Berkshire outperforms the index over most meaningful time frames. (1,3,10,20,30,40yrs)
(BRK.A - Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class A Trailing Returns - NYSE | Morningstar)
I sleep easy knowing the greatest investor in the history of capitalism is managing my money basically for free. Sounds pretty great to me.
(Of course we can all look in the rearview mirror and find one or two stocks that would have had higher returns with considerably more risk.)

Warren Buffett: “There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult.”

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Very good points! And you can add the OP’s 5 year return while you’re at it! :wink::joy:

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He is 92 years old. It is amazing, he still wants to work, and show up everyday. For me, I do not share the same enthusiasm for those who are going to step into his shoes.

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Exactly.
Dollar cost average in S&P. It will outperform BRK in next 15 years like it has in last 15.
Sleep well. Get rich slowly.

Is this a joke?
I’m pretty sure you meant to say dollar cost average into BRK, it will outperform the index in the future just as it has for the last… 3 month, 6month, YTD, 1yr, 3yr, 10yr, 20yr, 25yr, 30yr, 35yr, 40yr, 45yr, 50,yrs.

:joy:

If you wanna buy an index selling for 21x earnings, a dividend yield of 1.7%, 3.9X price to book, 2.4X price to sales, Shiller P/E of 29X, good luck!

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Buffett couldn’t beat a S&P 500 index in last 15 years which was supposedly expensive and BRK was a loaded spring.

What confidence you have that Abel will be able to do what Warren has not been able to do? Additionally, there is a risk that post Buffett, BRK may disintegrate. Add to that the size anchor.

Dollar cost average in S&P. Don’t overthink. Sleep well. Enjoy life.

d20…not being a wise guy, I’m genuinely interested in your thoughts.

Disintegrate? That’s a helluva adjective.

Can you give a scenario where Berkshire Hathaway would ‘disintegrate?’

When i think of disintegrate i conjur images of business failures such as GE or maybe Kodak…in the extreme, Enron.

Whats your idea of disintegrate and how might it happen?

Thx.

m

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15 years? Cherry pick much? :grinning:

The Berkshire investor has outperformed (has more money than) the S&P500 investor over the last 3 month, 6month, YTD, 1yr, 3yr, 5yr, 10yr, 20yr, 25yr, 30yr, 35yr, 40yr, 45yr, & 50,yr periods. (You have been wrong…alot.)

And that one 15 yr period you keep cherry picking is actually BRK +8.56% annually SPY +8.00% using quarterly returns. (If you include taxes it’s even better for BRK)

Lastly the “Buffett Indicator” which Warren described as, “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” Currently stands at 152% of GDP.
“If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200%–as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000–you are playing with fire.” ~Warren Buffett

When the S&P is trading at 70% of GDP I’ll be a buyer. Until then its BRK for me…

Buffett Indicator: The percent of total market cap relative to Gross National Product?.

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15 years is cherry pick ?

Despite all the complex capital allocation decisions Buffett has made in last 20 years he has not been able to shake S&P. Buffett has dabbled in Airlines, Apple, IBM, Share buybacks, Oxy, PCC, Banks, Exchanges, Pharma.
The point is that S&P and BRK are neck and neck after BRKs great year and S&P’s worse years.

Progressive which is Geico’s competition has done much better for its shareholders (3x returns). Same with UNP vs BNSF. It is a rinse an repeat pattern.

You can choose to close your eyes to the reality and get sucked in the echo chamber here. Going forward Buffett will not be there and it will be difficult to even to keep pace with S&P. The company faces huge headwinds in terms of its size and limited investing opportunities of meaningful size.

Brk permabears have pointed out every Brk underperformance in every bull run from the late 1990’s to 2021, and ignored Brk outperformance through every downturn and, more importantly, over the long haul.

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When one cannot disagree with facts, they resort to name calling. The main point is BRK is just keeping up with SPY, it is better to invest in SPY. Do you have anything worthwhile to say on that?

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I see a large and widening long term gap between brk and SP over over the long haul, which will increase if we fall into a recession with a prolonged recovery next year. I base my decision on a longer timeframe because that is where value investing shines.

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Really?
The one year results are:
S&P500 -15.88%
BRK +8.08
BRK outperformed by +23.96%
If you actually have a sizable portfolio that is some real cheddar!
The 3 year numbers are also rather impressively in Berkshires favor…
Berkshire shines in bear markets. Stay tuned…

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