Beware of solar storms

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/science/spacex-satellites…

**Solar Storm Destroys 40 New SpaceX Satellites in Orbit**

**The geomagnetic incident resulted in the Starlink transmitters drifting back into Earth’s atmosphere, where they will burn up, potentially costing the company about $100 million.**
**By Robin George Andrews, The New York Times, Feb. 9, 2022**

**...**

**The incident highlights the hazards faced by numerous companies planning to put tens of thousands of small satellites in orbit to provide internet service from space. And it’s possible that more solar outbursts will knock some of these newly deployed orbital transmitters out of the sky. The sun has an 11-year-long cycle in which it oscillates between hyperactive and quiescent states. Presently, it is ramping up to its peak, which has been forecast to arrive around 2025.**

**This recent solar paroxysm was relatively moderate by the sun’s standards. “I have every confidence that we’re going to see an extreme event in the next cycle, because that typically is what happens during a solar maximum,” said Hugh Lewis, a space debris expert at the University of Southampton in England. ...** [end quote]

The “moderate” coronal mass ejection (CME) reached Earth the day before the SpaceX launch, creating a geomagnetic storm. SpaceX should have delayed the launch until the atmosphere returned to normal.

Beware of solar storms ramping up to 2025. It’s impossible to say what will happen. There is a small possibility of a super-size CME that could fry electronic components even on the surface of the Earth. Even a moderate one could damage satellites.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event

Wendy

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The “moderate” coronal mass ejection (CME) reached Earth the day before the SpaceX launch, creating a geomagnetic storm. SpaceX should have delayed the launch until the atmosphere returned to normal.
Beware of solar storms ramping up to 2025. It’s impossible to say what will happen. There is a small possibility of a super-size CME that could fry electronic components even on the surface of the Earth. Even a moderate one could damage satellites.

Wendy,

Given our dependence upon satellites for global communication, defense, transportation, and financial services, it seems odd to me that the United Nations and other collaborative bodies haven’t acted in preparation for CME events just as intently as they have in preparation for climate change.

According to research described in the following linked 2020 study, there is a 4% statistical likelihood of extreme geomagnetic activity in any given year.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/201…

We find that on average there is a 4% chance of at least one … severe storm per year, and a 0.7% chance of a Carrington class storm per year [Emphasis added.]

https://earthsky.org/space/how-likely-space-super-storms-sol…

Given that a CME can instantaneously and seriously affect all human life (even causing war or famine if supply chains and finance are disrupted), one might reasonably expect that this risk would command equal or greater attention than plans for coping with the gradual but certain global warming phenomenon.

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