crushes earnings: +200% from March lows up 13.4% today after revenue and EPS estimate beats.

Subscription revenue was up 63% Y/Y to $36.1M. Total rev up 46% yoy.

During Q3, Bill had over 91K customers (+28% YoY), processed $24.2M in total payment volume (+35%), and had more than 6M transactions (+23%).

Plenty of cash/cash equivalents on the balance sheet - $382.4M at the end of the quarter.

The above is just key metrics - I started to take notes on the conference call, but only got half way through. I will share later this weekend if people are interested. Last time I posted about bill, people were pretty indifferent lol

By the way, since I drew attention to this stock back in March (thank you Oforfive for drawing it to my attention) it is up over 200%.…


Please do write it up…I had planned on writing something as well. I can’t remember who drew it to my attention (could have been you or Oforfive) but I first bought it in late February 2020. I have made 4 purchases:

$32.00 (my largest addition, and it was large)

It closed today for $83.62. My average return is 81%.

I am very grateful to y’all for bringing this one to the board. I will add to whatever you write…as a newbie, my analysis probably won’t be as sophisticated…but I will try.


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I’m too busy for a full write up (plus my old notes are on my old computer - please search for prior posts since much of the story is the same). I too initiated a position based on OforFive’s post early this year (mucho gracias). I started on 2/3/20 and added 8 more times since including yesterday after hours at $70/share. (My low add was on 4/1 @ $31.67). Overall, I’m up 74.02% in BILL which includes last slug at $70/share). BILL is now my largest holding. As much as I like BILL, I believe I added cautiously (I wish I would have loaded up on 4/1). Why? I was worried COVID-19 would really hurt their customer base namely, SMBs (small and medium business).

(Note, my comments below are based on my personal notes. So, I’m not posting a lot of numbers. I don’t have a transcript to verify.)

While covid hurt a segment of their business, I believe they mentioned it was less than 2% of their revenue base and less than 100k of revenue). They also discounted some customers fees - but stressed only customers who were impacted by COVID-19. In addition, they added 1000 free trial customers (again who were impacted by Covid-19). They hope to convert these trial customers to paying customers by end of next quarter.

One thing on revenues when you look at BILL. They break revenues into “core revenues” which are subscription revenues and transactions (payment processing etc) revenues, and non-core or interest rate float revenues. Core revenues were up and interest rate revenue were down. If you are evaluating them, IMO, you should back-out float revenues from growth rates. It really is just bonus interest. On sales cycle, they noted a short sales cycle. Not reliant on in person conferences or personal sales, etc. Small entry point per user ($39?), and once implemented it sells itself.

Partners. They partner with Big Banks (JPM and Citi) to provide accounts payable software solutions and payment solutions to the banks’ costumers. They announced adding Wells Fargo as a new major partner. They also Partner with a number of accounting firms to help the firms’ customers. I don’t recall much news on that front other than it is very stable and solid. As noted in prior posts, BILL accounts payable software and electronic payments works seamlessly with quickbooks.

Guidance, unlike many companies, they didn’t pull guidance. They guided core revenues between $34.8 million to 35.6 million. Float revenues $2.6-$2.8 million. I post those ranges to illustrate their confidence in guiding in a tight range (I noticed this in the past too). (I don’t have old notes to compare rates of growth.) They also mentioned their float guidance is way down and conservative expecting a very low rate of interest.

Expenses. Impacted by new office space - needed because of employee growth.

I posted on their “moat” before. Obviously, their platform and software is a huge investment. They continue to innovate. On the payment side, they mentioned before about the licensing requirements in multiple state and foreign jurisdictions.

They have a large TAM. I don’t see much competition. I don’t see quickbooks competing. I see quickbooks buying them if it came to it. (I recall the BILL CEO previous company he founded and built up was sold to quickbooks.)

Finally, one thing I like about BILL is that I believe I understand the business a lot better that some of the other companies I own (not being a techie).



On the free side of MF.

Why BILL stock soared today.…

Call transcript:…

Three stock that could double this summer.…

Finally, I recall that their lock-up on shares ends in June.



Excellent input Mike.

Here are some figures, background, further explanation of the growth Mike mentioned, etc.

Provider of cloud-based software that simplifies, digitizes, and automates back office financial operations for small and medium-sized businesses. Creates connections between businesses and their suppliers and customers.

91,000 customers, YOY growth of 28%
Processed $24B in payment volume, 35% YOY growth

From release:
Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.04 beats by $0.06; GAAP EPS of -$0.11 beats by $0.06.
Revenue of $41.23M (+46.0% Y/Y) beats by $4.21M.

Total Quarterly Revenue Growth: 46% YOY
Subscription and Transaction Revenue Increase 63% YOY
75.5% GAAP gross margin
78.8% non-GAAP gross margin
Net loss $8.3M, or $0.11/share
Cash: 382.4M

Revenue growth from subscriptions is actually up 63%, offset by interest of funds held for a net of 46%. The decrease in funds held is a result of decreased yield (lower interest rates)
Subscription fees up 17%, transaction fees up 67% per customer basis
Transaction fees up 106% overall, due primarily to adaptation of new product offerings combined with increased transactions.

*I’m trying to learn how to better interpret the financial statements
Net loss per share cumulative this FY is $0.63. For the same time last year it was $0.37. Not sure what’s driving this….trying to find out.
S&M has more than tripled. (Head count is 48% more than last year, accounting for over half of the S&M expense increase)
General and Admin expenses up 91% over last year. Addition of Executive Staff and staff based stock compensations. Staff increase of 82% in General & Admin.
R&D expenses up 98%. Head count up 70% in R&D.

With a market Cap of 5.3B today, they have been ramping up for the past year with increased staff. They are poised for further growth.

According to Executives, COVID has had minimal impact so far in their growth.

As mentioned above, Mike commented on the growth in personnel and COVID related items.

Hope this helps…fairly new at these write-ups.

Again, a large winner for me.



Before I post my notes below (which are very bullish in general - it was undoubtedly a very strong quarter), I do want to mention that there is a lockup period ending in June that people should be wary of.

CC notes below:

Key Details
Core revenue grew 63% yoy
Gross Margins improved yoy from 76% to 78.8%
Non gaap operating loss was 4.3mm vs 1.1mm in year ago quarter
Non gaap net loss was 2.9mm or $0.04 per share
Balance sheet is very healthy – 382mm in cash
From the CFO himself: To date, we have seen no material impact from covid 19.
Vinegar101: Might even be benefitting from covid – see details later
DBNER 118%

Regarding Covid 19
Many smb’s still use physical paper finance - crisis could accelerate move to digital financial operations.

Vinegar101 here: We were concerned that SMB’s would not be paying their bills, or would be deferring decision to buy software. But actually, from the CFO, we were told that the company is offering to waive fees to businesses impacted by coronavirus. However, less than 2% of customers have taken them up on this offer, which led to a reduction in revenue of under $100k – not a material impact!!
That said, there were business impacts that I will discuss in more detail later.

a) Whole work force is remote
b) Tech stack is completely cloud based
c) Waived subscriptions fees for 3 months for new customers financially impacted by covid 19
d) Existing customers in distress – short term suspensions
e) Extended customer support hours to help people balancing work life environments
f) Federal funds rate reduction adversely impacted float revenue
g) Majority of opex spend is related to headcount. Have paused new hiring for the quarter except in critical positions
Vinegar101 here – I don’t like that they paused hiring…
h) Payment risk mgmt. policies have been altered to mitigate potential increases in credit losses associated with payment flows on our platform
i) Processing, approving, and depositing payments electronically is necessary in world where you can’t go to bank or meet with client or retrieve snail mail
j) 82% of customers as of april 2019 were still customers as of apr 30 2020, consistent with retention rate reported at end of fiscal 2019

Key financial metrics:
Core revenue – (subscriptions + transactions) rev grew by 63% yoy to 36.1 million
total rev – grew by 46% yoy to 41.2 million
strong non gaap gross margins of 78.8%
91k customers, representing 28% yoy growth
1.8 mm network members
6mm payment transactions, increase of 23% over year ago period
24.2 billion in total payment vol, increase of 33% yoy

-The product enables to stretch out accounts payable, speed up accounts receivable

On Business Durability
biz model is durable for following reasons: demand generation is not reliant on in person events.
-Market directly to smb’s through online digital marketing referral programs and strategic partnerships
-half of customers used their platform because they used it at prior company or heard through colleague
-go to market model is not reliant on people going direct on the street. Direct sales are 100% inside sales
-short sales cycle of less than 30 days . risk free trial makes it easy for customers to get on platform quickly
–use platform anywhere anytime from any device . no time consuming implementation,
–subscriptions start at $39 per month
–382 mm in cash on balance sheet
–There has been covid related churn. But on the flip side, there have also been customers joining because they are looking for business continuity solutions that would be afforded by using

Showcase how is helping accounting partners
Accounting firms can serve more clients more profitably
Increased traction in this channel
Bookminders (an accounting firm) says our clients believe is a necessity in this new environment.
Businesses look to banking partners, who in turn go to for services already integrates with boa, jpmc, amex, etc . new wells fargo solution

Non gaap financial metrics
–new trial sign ups in mar and apr – enabling continuity for financial operations in remote environments
– offering 90 day free subscriptions and fee waivers for existing customers
–less than 2% had portion of subscriptions fees waived. So reduction in subscription revenue of less than 100k through april
–regarding support for prospective customers – 1k trial customers joined under new free trial. Introduced on mar 30. Can assess conversation rate at end of next quarter
–majority of customers auto pay prescription in arrears

–$24.2 billion in total payment volume. Over 6mm payment transactions, 23% yoy growth. Both were down slightly vs typical seasonal pattern
–during 2nd half of march , number of transactions went down starting march and continued in april. Down 14% from march.
–Net db retention rate. Through mar, it was 120%, an increase from last recorded number of 110% from june 2019. In april, rev retention went down to 118% reflecting transaction trends mentioned earlier
Increased attrition starting in april from existing customers. Monthly attrition rate went up 15% from March to April . Mainly from industry segments materially impacted by quarantine, such as restaurants.
Vinegar101: what would revenue have been if there hadn’t been customer attrition???
–82% of customers as of april 2019 were still customers as of apr 30 2020, consistent with retention rate reported at end of fiscal 2019

total rev – 41.2mm. 46% from q3 19. Driven by core rev (subscription and transaction and excludes float rev),
63% yoy core rev to 37mm. increase in customers they serve and growth in rev from existing customers
subscription rev – 22.3mm up from 15.3 mm, 44% increase yoy
driven by increase in customers on platform and average subscription rev per customer
transaction rev – 13.8 mm, increase of 106% yoy. Driven by adoption of new product offerings and increasing number of transactions processed

float rev – decreased from 6.1mm to 5.1 mm yoy, 16%. Annualized rate of return on customer funds held was ~1.5%, dipping 74basis points from prior year. This was due to the Fed’s action to significantly cut the federal funds rate. This ultimately hurt non gaap gross margin

non gaap gross margin: 78.8%, versus 76% in prior year. Higher due to adoption of new product offerings and partially offset by the decline in float rev. Note that this is as high as non gaap gm’s should get, due to negative impact on float due to the fed funds rate being so low for likely an extended period of time.

Operating expenses
R&D was 31% of revenue, up from 29% in prior year. Due to hiring engineering/product talent. Still adding new features and functoniality for growing customer base
S&M were 28% of revenue, up from 26% in prior year
G&A were 30% of revenue, up from 25% - due to first full quarter of public company expenses

Non gaap operating loss was 4.3mm vs 1.1mm in year ago quarter
Non gaap net loss was 2.9mm or $0.04 per share based on 72.4mm shares outstanding.

Balance sheet
Cash/cash equivalents of 382.4mm, down from 383mm at the end of previous quarter.
1.35bb in customer funds on balance sheet, down slightly from prior quarter due to lower total payment volume in march.

Assumption going forward is that trends seen in april continue, without material deterioration.

Next quarter: total revenue expected to be 37.4mm to 38.4mm, comprised of core rev between 34.8mm and 35.6mm and float rev between 2.6mm and 2.8mm.

Expect a non gaap net loss from 9mm to 8mm and non gaap eps loss of .12 to .11 per share with 72.6mm shares outstanding.

From CEO/Founder Rene Lacerte: going after 6mm businesses. Currently only have 91k customers


Excellent write up.

On the new hire freeze, my company did it. I personally had 1 internal transfer who is a direct report to me. Lots of issues even with internal people. I can’t imagine hiring someone externally - getting them set up and oriented would be extremely tough when everyone is remote.


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Vinegar 101,

(thank you Oforfive for drawing it to my attention)

You’re most welcome. It take some satisfaction that my contribution to crowd sourcing helped someone. I certainly do not have much to offer on the most-followed stocks here. BILL is my #12 position in a (gasp) 39 stock portfolio. Like others, I am overweight on subset of stocks. 4 of Saul’s picks are in my top 10 and I am up 37% for the year. My top 12 are:

LGIH 11.4%
AYX 7.8%
OKTA 6.7%
CRWD 6.6%
TTD 6.1%
LVGO 6.1%
DDOG 5.7%
SHOP 3.0%
MDB 2.2%
ROKU 1.9%
ESTC 1.4%
BILL 1.4%

LGIH is up 68%, LVGO up 70%, TTD up 39%, SHOP up 67%, and BILL up 81%. So my “non-Saul” stocks are pulling their own weight.
LGIH is an old-time Saul stock that was crushed to a 4.7 TTM p/e so I pounced. Had a very good Q1 and conference call so no longer a screaming buy.