Bill Ford-Big Beautiful Budget Will Gut US Auto Industry

[mostlylong]

For readers following trends in vehicle electrification.

@DrBob2

Maybe the US auto market isn’t and shouldn’t be a priority for EV makers? We have low gas prices, low population density, and very high miles driven per person (with a corresponding longer trip length).

Here’s US trends:

@mostlylong

In the US in Q1 2025, overall vehicle sales grew 4.8% yoy and EV sales grew 11.4%, so EV sales are growing faster than overall vehicle sales.

EV market share has grown from about 2% in 2020 to about 7-8% now.

Just came across global trends:

electric cars making up 22 per cent of all new cars sold worldwide in 2024.

This figure is up from just 2.6 per cent in 2019, with sales of non-electric cars decreasing by 20 per cent over that same five-year period.

@mostlylong

In 5 years, will US market share be lower, about unchanged, or higher for

• EVs ?
• all electrified ?

What would you forecast?

@DrBob2

@mostlylong

In another thread I asked the below question. Never got a response. Care to make a forecast?

No. My tarot license was revoked decades ago, and I never had any crystal balls.

What wouldn’t make sense would be to reference a small segment of the market (oem, geography, plant, model) and try to imply that somehow represents the broader market.