@wsm007 – That is a better analysis than should be available for free. Thank you!
You didn’t leave much out, but I’ll hit on guidance quickly. It was lower than I had hoped. 30% for Q1 and 23% for the FY. I was expecting more like mid to high 20’s for the FY.
They gave us a reason – the BofA deal. But I didn’t think they did a great job of explaining how it will work. We just know that subscription revenue will be up single digits YoY in Q1 (which actually means down sequentially), and it will also only be up single digits for the full year. Why they expect this will create a bigger opportunity long term…I am not clear on.
Intuit didn’t renew their contract which took away 12,000 customers, but they were “micro-businesses” which only accounted for less than 1% of revenue…still, the move just makes things even more competitive.
I guess thanks to BILL’s ability to still eke out some growth and expand EPS, this quarter gets a tepid pass for me, meaning I’m not exiting. But I’ve cut BILL back down to 7% or so. I still think the price is fair, but the report did not prove it to be a screaming buy like I’d hoped it would. All we needed was a routine “all systems go” quarter and we did not get that.
Honestly, I’m just glad to not get shellacked on this one!
Bear