These have to be our bravest astronauts.
Under Boeing management the Starliner has had a host of problems and is years late. Elon Musk has been running rings around Boeing for years.
The two astronauts appear to be in their 60’s, so they’ve already lived long lives.
intercst
Based on past history with this program and the more widely publicized ones with aircraft, I’d say Boeing is a big short next week.
NASA says the odds of “crew loss” for Monday’s Boeing Starliner flight is 1 in 295, just slightly better than no-go value of 1 in 270.
I wonder if we could improve that by mandating that Calhoun ride as a passenger on the first trip? There are seats available.
intercst
They’ll probably come up with some new excuse to delay it.
I see a failure rate greater than 10%. This is a different standard than the risk to astronauts’ lives. For example, a failure that allows the crew to reach the space station but makes landing the Starliner impossible or too high a risk. I’d put the possibility of mission failure near 50%. Again, a different standard. This is a test with lots of objectives other than the crew reaching the space station and returning safely. If it weren’t for politics, I’d put the probability of the Starliner being qualified for flights to the space station after this flight at less than 10%.
Most likely issue? Well, a cluster of issues. Orbital rendezvous is hard. I think that due to all of the modifications to Starliner since the second flight, they are really flying a different set of flight controls. Again, absent politics, I think NASA would require another unmanned flight.
There were 135 space shuttle flights, two of which ended in disaster. Odds look more like 1 in 70 to me, and that’s without a Welchian at the head of the company. So … more like 1 in 10, maybe.
Space shuttle was a far more complicated machine than a standard rocket with a capsule. You’d expect a higher failure rate - Welchian management or not.
intercst
We had two Apollo failures too. One failure resulted in loss of crew. The other, the crew survived only by frantic efforts to reenginer the craft, on the fly, to use what still worked.
Steve
Starliner has been scrubbed for today’s 10.34 PM EDT lift off due to a “mechanical issue”. With all eyes on Boeing (and NASA) after 7 years of failure, we don’t need to rush things and overlook a “frozen O-ring”.
intercst
I so hate Boeing management I do not know what to hope for, except I do not want dead astronauts.
d fb
Dng, ding, ding,
We have a winner…
2017
How does the management exist? I get they are taking 25% of the company for crapping on everything. A reason to not leave peacefully in disgrace.
And on those the door plugs stayed on, at least initially.
Mike
It wasn’t a fuselage panel that blew out, it was designed as an emergency exit.
I was alluding to “the frozen O-ring” in the solid rocket boosters that caused the Space Shuttle Challenger explosion in the 1980’s.
intercst
Sort of gives the lie to the notion of an “independent board of directors, supervising management, for the benefit of the shareholders”, eh? Just another vector of rampant corruption in Shiny-land.
Steve
My money’s on the title of this post being accurate for at least the next month or so…