BOFI - Nice little article on SA

From a nice little article on Seeking Alpha:

A clever commenter on our last article called the company in question, BofI Holding, a “reverse value-trap,” and that evocative description has stuck with us. The business looks solid on all fundamental fronts with excellent growth and a scalable model. Yet a majority of articles on Seeking Alpha recommend shorting it, implying that despite good earnings, the company seems untrustworthy, and there’s no value here (i.e., a “value trap”).

And so, before buying a small stake in the company, I did a personal litmus test: I asked a friend if he would invest in a company called “Bank of Internet.” He laughed. It sounds like a bad translation - a Chinese shell company. And besides, there is nothing exciting, revolutionary, or sexy about a bank. If anything, banks are too confusing, and certainly not worthy of our trust.

Herein lies the opportunity. BOFI doesn’t make headlines. BOFI doesn’t inspire loyalty or belief in its “mission.” BOFI doesn’t get mentioned at cocktail parties. The only investor who might take an interest in the company will be the one who has done a reasonable amount of personal investigation and thinks that BOFI - a “fundamentally undervalued” stock - fits into his boring portfolio.

And there will be no trumpets, regalia, or confetti, but he doesn’t really care about that.

The “So What?”

A lot of companies fit this “reverse value-trap” profile. In niche, too-technical, too-confusing, or poorly marketed stocks, there will always be opportunities for favorable risk-reward value plays. Especially when a sector or industry is unpopular or under scrutiny for political or idealistic reasons (e.g., coal), opportunity abounds. Just don’t expect to always find these plays in the headlines.…


I liked the article. I love owning some big brand consumer stocks – if they are proven and excellent companies, why not own them? I am proud and happy to own Apple, Starbucks and Disney, for example. That’s good stuff and you know these companies are going to stick around. I can sleep pretty good at night with those stocks in my port.

And I don’t go to cocktail parties. I used to talk (brag) about my stocks in 1999. Stupid!!! Stupid!!! I did not know how to invest!!! I lost a (expletive) ton of money. But, life goes on, thank goodness.

I call the quiet ones the sleepers, and I like the quiet ones. However, it never matters if a stock is a consumer cult stock, it matters if the institutions are buying it, holding it, and adding to it. That’s what I learned from Cramer. Little Joes and Jills don’t move the market, do we? (Well, that AMBA in the video camera drone thing was curious wasn’t it? I was curious if it was real newsy or not, and whether it would have any effect. However I am STUPID and did not buy any AMBA shares before mentioning it!!! Doh!)



Nice article, and part of the reason why BOFI is one of my largest holdings…

It also immediately made me think about TSLA. Have owned it for a while, got out, got back in after it dropped, and been debating the last few months whether or not to get out. $30b market cap, not turning a profit yet, stock driven up by the success of Model S, the promise of its SUV and more affordable sedan, plus the charisma and track record of Elon Musk.

But how much growth does TSLA has to show to earn this valuation? What is the likelihood we will soon see another 50% drop like we did abut 18 months ago as Mr Doubt turns its head around the corner again? More and more I believe the likelihood of a 50% drop (enough for me to get back in if I would get out) in the next 6 months is significantly higher than a 50% rise in the stock price.

Man, this board makes me think and rethink. I love it.


meant to add…“than a 50% rise in the stock price over the next 18 months.”

Another risk/reward decision

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