Bored with the Board? (VERI)

More than two million refugees have fled Ukraine into neighboring countries due to the largest military operation in Europe since WW2. These refugees are fleeing their homes in hopes to find safety for their families in the homes of strangers from neighboring countries.

This military operation has led most of the developed world to heavily sanction Russia, who is a major global supplier of crude oil and exports $300-400 Billion of goods annually. These sanctions, and the sudden impact on Russia’s economy has materially impacted the revenue of many global companies and financial institutions.

The world is barely back on its feet after two years of a life-altering pandemic that will prove transformative for many industries and social practices. During the pandemic the Fed spent more than $3.5 Trillion on Covid Relief spending.

The Fed dropped the overnight lending rate to 0%.

Supply chain woes during the pandemic have still barely found relief and the cost of freight as well as the inability to provide essential materials in a timely manner has had a material impact on manufacturing and goods services.

These are extraordinary times indeed.

In 2020 we could throw darts to pick stocks and make a cool 100% ROI without trying. Things are a little different now. I appreciate the Rudyard Kipling share from earlier this month-- I remember my dad offering us $20 as kids if we memorized the whole poem.
“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you.”

It wasn’t long ago I read every post every day on this board, but it’s starting to turn into tv ads during election season. Relentless smear-campaigns against posters and individual stocks.

I get it. The world is kind of a mess. I’m mad about what’s happening in Ukraine-- it’s 2022 for goodness’ sake. Things are stressful. The account balance has lost 50% over the past four months. Every desperate move I make to gain a little back ends up putting me further behind. On top of that, my wife, who handles none of the finances, can’t stop talking about the house she wants me to build for our family… and I think my two-year-old swallowed a Lego, and I really hope that’s Nutella on her hand…

I have a proposal to make.

Whether the market is in the toilet or shooting the moon-- whether it’s Nutella or Sh*tella–let’s use this space to discuss stocks. Let’s narrow it down further to talk about really great companies we believe in-- hyper-growth companies with predictable income, low overhead, strong balance sheets, great leadership, and massive expansive runways for growth. Let’s create a knowledgebase where we freely share everything we have learned about finding great companies to invest in to anyone who comes here seeking wisdom and wants to take part in the crowd-sharing process.

https://discussion.fool.com/knowledgebase-2019-part-1-34381924.a…

Then let’s break it down together. Let’s realize the potential benefit of this space, and the potential pitfalls. This isn’t Twitter-- We don’t need endless streams of posts about the same thing. This is a place for intelligent, courteous, and productive analysis.

Does it matter what is happening with our stocks right now? I realize we are all in different places in our lives, but if you’re still adding money to the market-- still investing and not yet living solely off your stocks, then every day a great company drops in price is a little gift for you. Do you remember when The DaVinci Code book came out? They didn’t release a paperback copy for three years! They did this because it was selling so well they wanted to fetch the premium rate for as long as possible. Well… all of our companies are trading in paperback right now-- that’s a gift.

Let’s keep investing in great companies and keep our eyes on the horizon. I’d really love a place to crowd-share high growth companies and send well-trained scrutinizing eyes on my picks to continue to learn from.

Since you are all dying to talk about something other than SNOW or UPST, I want to present a high-conviction name for your consideration. Yes, I posted on it recently but did a rather poor job and did not receive any feedback.

https://discussion.fool.com/introducing-veritone-veri-35065524.a…

As I’ve read through the earnings transcript several times I can’t help but notice how bullish the entire management team is-- from the President to the CEO to the CFO on the call–

Here are some of the highlights:

About Veritone
“Veritone is a leading provider of artificial intelligence (AI) technology and solutions. The company’s proprietary operating system, aiWARE, orchestrates an expanding ecosystem of machine learning models to transform audio, video and other data sources into actionable intelligence. aiWARE can be deployed in a number of environments and configurations to meet customers’ needs. Its open architecture enables customers in the media and entertainment, legal and compliance, and government sectors to easily deploy applications that leverage the power of AI to dramatically improve operational efficiency and effectiveness.”


Q4
Revenue: increased 228% YoY
Gross Margin 89%
Software Customers: 529 (up 47% from 2020)
Total New Bookings Increased 469% YoY

“To support this growth and achieve our near and long-term objectives, we expect to continue making responsible investments. These include forecasted increases in headcount by over 50%, which, today, includes just over 500 full-time employees. Our growth is largely dependent on these hires, the majority of which will be engineers, operational support and sales.”

Considerable headcount growth to keep up with rapid acceleration of business.

“where the world sees the great resignation, we see the great opportunity. We no longer have border restrictions on hiring, however, we also need to retain our current employees and with higher inflation and wage increases globally, we will need to reinvest back into our current employees with newer retention rewards, higher annual raises and richer benefits versus historical. In total, we expect these onetime system and retention-related investments to be approximately $5 million of incremental costs to Veritone in 2022”

A culture that understands and values its workforce.

“The Veritone of the future will have billions of end users, millions of customers with less than 1% of the applications running on aiWARE being developed and owned by Veritone. We are building the OS of the future, and we’ve reached the tipping point.”

An vision that matches our desire for nearly infinite growth.

We have entered a new stage in our land and expand strategy as we are now helping our partners, land and expand their own AI solutions powered by aiWARE. In 2022, we expect increased adoption and believe it will further accelerate in 2023. This is the tipping point we have been striving for. This is the point where it really gets interesting. The point where our customers use aiWARE to develop applications for their customers and, in turn, drive the geometric progression of our business, the point where AI application development and Veritone diverge and the point where aiWARE creates enormous leverage to grow customers, end users, revenue and so on.”

Increased acceleration over the next 2+ years.

“We have formed numerous strategic relationships with global entities like Deloitte, Microsoft and the U.S. Federal Government. In 2021, these enterprise partners tested the power of aiWARE they were able to build new applications from scratch with 10% of the typical cost in one-tenth of the average time.”

The efficiency creation we look for that makes our companies non-negotiable for their customers-- resilient services that are recession proof.

“Customer growth for PandoLogic was over 100% in the quarter. Perhaps more importantly, our commercial business, excluding PandoLogic, grew 61% year-over-year in the December quarter, an outstanding quarter by every measure.”

Organic growth on top of inorganic and accretive acquisition.

“Overall, our revenue pipeline has never been stronger. Our partner-driven channel strategy continues to deliver results. New bookings were $8.2 million in Q4 2021, an increase of over 450%. Organic bookings growth was 238% in the quarter. Our future pipeline is at an all-time high, particularly in GRI, where we expect to immediately begin realizing significant growth in the near and long-term.”

“Immediate” and “significant” growth in the near and long-term. I’d buy that for a dollar.

“AI is 1,000 times more important, more powerful and more diverse than any marketplace or cloud computing infrastructure. It is the future of humanity and it’s our only focus. We have reached another tipping point and the continued translation of our vision into reality is accelerating. I’ll elaborate. Just six years ago, Veritone had one AI model with one application used by less than five customers in one industry running on Version 1 of aiWARE. We ended 2021 with hundreds of models, with dozens of applications used by over 500 customers in 40 industries.”

“As we enter 2022, we are excited to have renewed and/or expanded virtually every single one of our commercial enterprise contracts.”

Gross Retention.

“Activity is accelerating across local, state, federal and regulated markets.

Acceptance and acceleration in the government markets will be transformative for Veritone’s aiWARE.

"Heading into 2022, with over 60% consolidated revenue growth, a rock solid balance sheet and profitability we now have the business momentum and financial leverage to accelerate our growth story even further."

“2021 revenue reached a record $115.3 million, up 100% year-over-year. Software products and services revenue increased 329% to a record $59.5 million, driven by the $38.0 million PandoLogic contribution and a 53% year-over-year increase in organic software products and services. Managed services grew $11.9 million, or 27%, well above industry averages. On a pro forma basis, 2021 revenue increased 41% to $148.1 million, driven primarily by software products and services.”

I appreciate the breakdown of organic versus acquisition growth. Organic growth for the year of 41%, but for Q4 it was trending higher (over 60% for commercial business). I expect to see continued acceleration of organic growth in 2022 and 2023.

Veritone currently trades at 3x P/S-- I attribute this primarily to is small market cap and poor brand awareness. If you’ve made it this far thanks for peeking-- if you have a tech-savvy brain, experience in the field, or understand these products better than I do, feel free to reach out to me directly.

Thanks again to the board and everyone who makes this great. I’m looking forward to the next 15+ years of investing with you.

MillennialFalcon

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MillennialFalcon,

Maybe, just maybe, ok, it is extremely likely, that I do not understand what Zoominfo does, what its market it and so on. But, even after Saul said he made a mistake getting out, I am reluctant to get back in. I never liked the business, just didn’t. It did not seem to be world changing, not even broad marker changing.

Unlike Bill which can change the lives of small business everywhere.

Monday, build an OS that changes the way people work.

Or, Zscaler or Crowd that can be the sheriff in the wild wild west that we call “the cloud”

or Net which says phooey on that! Let’s not control the chaos, lets build a new universe!

Or Upstart, that says forget a business niche, lets change the way one of the pillars of trade works. Let’s make a fundamental shift in humanity.

That I can get behind.

"AI is 1,000 times more important, more powerful and more diverse than any marketplace or cloud computing infrastructure. It is the future of humanity and it’s our only focus.

Now THAT is an interesting business. That is something worth investing
in. That might be a buy and hold forever. I don’t see that in Zoom Info. Probably why I still work.

Veritone, seems like an interesting concept. I would love to see if the truly wise could find out if it is an interesting business. I am not eager to throw money at it yet. I liked what Palintor was doing, it proved to be a poor investment.

Cheers
Qazulight

P.S. Look at the historical charts from 1935 to 1956. From Dunkirk to the Bataan death march was barely a blip in the indexes. We either come out of this ending what was an 8 year civil war in Ukraine and life gets better, or we all die. If we all die, ones and zeros don’t matter, if we don’t there will be a whole bunch more than there are now.

20 Likes

MillennialFalcon,

I appreciate you bringing a company to the board, and suggesting we focus on really great companies we believe in-- hyper-growth companies with predictable income, low overhead, strong balance sheets, great leadership, and massive expansive runways for growth. Couldn’t agree more.

However Veritone does not appear to be either predictable or hypergrowth. That means it’s probably off topic for the board, but I do see this as a potential learning opportunity for us. Maybe by examining a company I believe does not qualify, we can think about the things that do – and why they give us high conviction. Or maybe I’m wrong about Veritone. But I think a very important question to ask yourself with this one is: Why is your confidence in them so high?

I made a mistake with Amplitude. I thought their tiny base of revenue was exploding. It had gone from 30m to 33m to 39m to 45.5m in the last several quarters (before Q4). I was penciling in another huge jump to 51 or 52m or more, and far more importantly than the number, the reason was that I thought the growth was exploding. And at these levels it should be, right? It’s a lot easier to add 6 or 7 million of revenue than 50m or 60m (like a CRWD or DDOG) in a single quarter.

But I was wrong. Amplitude couldn’t keep up the pace. We don’t know if it was a blip or a trend, but they only added less than 4m in Q4. Ouch. Maybe they’ll be ok, but I should have had it as a lower confidence position.

Veritone’s revenue base is much smaller. You gave their last 4 quarters (before Q4) going from 16.82m to 18.3m to 19.21m to 22.6m. So it’s like half the revenue base of even tiny Amplitude, and growing slower. That jumped to 55.1m in Q4 due to an acquisition, right? That’s pretty unpredictable! And it adds a lot of uncertainty. Did they take on a lot of debt? Issue shares?

Also, the Q4 pro forma revenue growth was only 30% YoY. Hard to be impressed by the combined company there. It’s growing much slower than the large, established companies we follow. If you’re trying to find a lesser-known company that is exploding, this doesn’t seem to be it.

Bear

PS – Since this seems to be off topic, I’ll ask that no one other than MillenianFalcon respond unless you think I got the facts wrong. We just don’t need to clutter the board. Thanks for your cooperation, everyone!

41 Likes

Hi Falcon, they talk a great game as if the business is exploding, and revenue is exploding, and as if the company will take over the world. They made an acquisition which made revenue rise enormously, but here are the two sentences from the most recent earnings report that tell the story :

Revenue increased to $55.1 million, up 230% and 30% yoy on a GAAP basis and on a Pro Forma basis, respectively… Pro Forma basis assumes Veritone owned PandoLogic since the beginning of 2020.

Okay, in simple language, here’s what that says:

When you take the revenue from the two companies combined, and compare it with the revenue from Veritone’s alone, a year ago, it looks like it’s up 230% because the acquisition was considerably larger than Veritone.

When you take the revenue from the two companies combined, and compare it with the revenue from the two companies combined a year ago, it’s up just 30% because that’s how fast the combined company is growing. The much larger acquired company must have been growing quite slowly.

Now, 30% growth for the combined company makes it of limited interest, though I have to grant you, three times sales is pretty cheap.

I hope that this helps,

Saul

46 Likes

Okay, in simple language, here’s what that says:

When you take the revenue from the two companies combined, and compare it with the revenue from Veritone’s alone, a year ago, it looks like it’s up 230% because the acquisition was considerably larger than Veritone.

When you take the revenue from the two companies combined, and compare it with the revenue from the two companies combined a year ago, it’s up just 30% because that’s how fast the combined company is growing. The much larger acquired company must have been growing quite slowly.

Now, 30% growth for the combined company makes it of limited interest, though I have to grant you, three times sales is pretty cheap.

I hope that this helps,

Saul,

Helps me a lot.

Looking back at my companies. I don’t see any I would sell for Zoom Info, much less a 30 percent grower.

Thanks
Qazulight (Although taking over the world does have certain appeal)

1 Like

Saul and Co.

Thanks so much for taking the time to respond and take a look. Admittedly the GAAP and Non-GAAP and organic vs inorganic growth can be confusing for me still. I thought they actually did a really great job to be purposeful and break down the organic growth— I’m not sure where the disparity is, but I thought the organic growth was actually 41% based on a couple of the breakdowns:

“Starting with full-year 2021 performance, 2021 revenue reached a record $115.3 million, up 100% year-over-year. Software products and services revenue increased 329% to a record $59.5 million, driven by the $38.0 million PandoLogic contribution and a 53% year-over-year increase in organic software products and services. Managed services grew $11.9 million, or 27%, well above industry averages. On a pro forma basis, 2021 revenue increased 41% to $148.1 million, driven primarily by software products and services.”

While admittedly the past 4-8 quarters don’t paint hyper-growth the way we look for it, I believe Veritone is heading into hyper growth acceleration driven by momentum in both government/regulated industry (GRI) and commercial sectors:

“New bookings were $8.2 million in Q4 2021, an increase of over 450%. Organic bookings growth was 238% in the quarter. Our future pipeline is at an all-time high, particularly in GRI, where we expect to immediately begin realizing significant growth in the near and long-term.”

“our commercial business, excluding PandoLogic, grew 61% year-over-year in the December quarter.”

Growth through acquisitions is always a red flag for me initially, so help me understand with this one—

From what I can tell both the organic and the acquired company revenue accelerated this quarter.

“customer growth for PandoLogic was over 100% in the quarter.”

It looks to me the Q4 organic(old Veritone) revenue was muted a bit by the large growth in Pando’s revenue QoQ— when in fact “A 53% year-over-year increase in organic software products and services.”

Gross Margins improved after the acquisition to an all-time high of 89%.

The PandoLogic acquisition expands Veritones product suite, offers obvious and realized synergies, and was a total purchase price of up to $150 million, which based on last quarter’s growth in Pando alone is probably less than 2x Pando’s Sales—

On the surface to me this looks like a profitable, founder-led, high margin, software / AI company growing organically at 41% YoY and trading at less than 3x sales (not our favorite metric I know)

Just below the surface— this looks like a company with strong tailwinds who is under-followed and under-appreciated by fickle Mr. Market— and a company who just breached the government / regulated industry space which will prove transformative to revenue and continued growth.

I do want to see how the organic growth continues going forward— and the revenue is more lumpy as ARR is still a minority of the revenue on a subscription basis— that lumpiness is evident in guidance weaker next quarter yet 60% higher for the year.

I also haven’t dared breach the topic of potential revenue sources— the founders— who have a lot of skin in the game— also have 25 years in advertising tech— an industry I believe they could exploit through their industry leading synthetic voice products— as well as — wait for it, whisper voice the Metaverse. I know I just lost some interest there, but fortunately it’s just bonus material at this point.

I know these aren’t all apples to apples but:


SentinelOne (S) : last quarter revenue $56M

VERI: $55M

Market cap
S: $8 Billion 
VERI: $500 million

Gross margin
S: 60%
VERI: 89%

Non-GAAP net income margin
S: -120%
VERI 30%

Price / Sales
S: over 40X sales
VERI: under 3X sales 

Even 3x sales for 30% growth and 89% GM seems like a very good value to me. But I think the organic growth is over 40% and the revenue / opportunity is much better.

The low subscription / ARR revenue is a concern as well as the market cap because most of our companies are much larger by cap— but it also means $500M doubles whereas $8B gets Sentinel to a double?

I have a large position in Sentinel also BTW— so I’m not attacking it per say, just comparing two companies I own.

Thanks again for your time, honestly just talking about one stock instead of why all the stocks are down is invigorating for me… (and this feels like progress compared to kaleyra!)

I know times are tough, but we live in a fortunate age. Opportunity abounds.

Health today, Prosperity tomorrow, Peace always.

MillennialFalcon
“Stake now, Steak later!”

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