I estimate BRK current BV is > $255 per share. P / BV < 1.40.
BV increase $20 BB AT on investment portfolio. $8 BB Operating earnings.
One of the best quarters ever and of course a new record high.
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Usually folks complain about valuation bubble in stock market, do we apply valuation discount to the equity holding?
And Berkshire spent nearly $1 billion in Q3 buying back at prices higher than Friday’s close.
Buffett don’t get no respect…
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BRK share price is up 15% YTD. Mr. Market does show respect.
Buffett has bet big on oil (OXY) and the share price is down. I am still trying to figure out what he is seeing there.
Will it turn out like Apple or IBM ?
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Don’t know. If I have to guess, I think Oil companies were talking about staying disciplined and not throwing all the cash flow into CAPEX and return cash to shareholders etc. Of course, XOM, CVX, two energy companies that I own both announced big deals and the stocks declined promptly (of course Oil also went down). Now one can argue they are not investing in capex, but still the cash is going out to generate new reserves, production capacity etc and not coming to shareholders.
If Oil cannot go above $100 with 2 wars and a solid economy, what are the chances for it in 2024? I am reconsidering energy. Of course it is not as big as tech or financials, but I may sell them and look for some small cap names to invest.
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Oil has gone up and down through decades. The economics of oil as energy source are really good. Cost, Energy density, Weight, Availability etc. Moreover, $Trillions have been invested in infrastructure over decades.
However, renewables are now here to stay and capture inreasing market share. Here is how WORLD looks
How will this chart look in 3, 5, 10 years ?
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Most likely, fossil fuels with continue a path of slow decline, but will remain with us for at least the next 50 years (plenty of aircraft out there 50 years old now, so in 50 years, a 50 year old aircraft will still use fossil fuels, not to mention plastics and similar).
Solar+wind+etc will continue rising rapidly, they have a particular advantage that none of the others have - no ongoing fuel costs. And they have very few objectionable side effects, no smog, no nuclear waste, no harmful substances at all.
Nuclear might decline for another 5-7 years, but is likely to begin rising again after that due to various projects currently on the books. But it all depends on other things, like if countries (for example, France) elects a strong green party needed for a government coalition, they may turn off existing nuclear faster than new nuclear comes online. I also expect nuclear to rise even faster in 20+ years, if the cost issue can be conquered, on balance it has the most advantages and fewest disadvantages technologically.
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There is a lot of innovation in renewable energy generation and storage.
If fossil fuels pie shrinks, does OXY remain attractive ? It seems to be like the purchase of Newspapers after it was clear that the pie will shrink.
I am not sure what Buffett is thinking. He is 93.
oil as energy source… renewables are now here to stay and capture inreasing market share. Here is how WORLD looks
Oil is required for far more than as energy source. Please post a graph of the WORLD % of synthetic clothes, plastic containers etc. made of sun light.
I am not sure what Buffett is thinking. He is 93.
Speechless (me).
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