It is a big reason op earnings dropped only 9% during the pandemic of the century.
FWIW, here are my figures for the “steady items” operating earnings.
Rolling four quarters for [Rails + utilities + M/S/R + cyclically adjusted underwriting profit], adjusted for inflation, after tax, per share.
2017 Q4 10446
2018 Q1 11074
2018 Q2 11825
2018 Q3 12445
2018 Q4 13075
2019 Q1 13204
2019 Q2 13113
2019 Q3 13178
2019 Q4 13367
2020 Q1 13154
2020 Q2 12362
2020 Q3 12468
2020 Q4 12979
2021 Q1 13691
2021 Q2 15207
2021 Q3 15692
2021 Q4 16281
2022 Q1 16557
2022 Q2 16638
It’s interesting to graph. The latest figure is up inflation+24.5% from the pre-pandemic peak.
Since it’s not the same as headline reported operating earnings, it shows a different drop: peak to trough, inflation adjusted rolling four quarters, -7.5%.
To get a sense of scale for the size of the ultimate pandemic hit to operating earnings, I note that essentially the entire dip hit in 2020-Q2.
If I replace the “steady things” operating earnings for that quarter with the average of 2019-Q2 and 2021-Q2 figures, the pandemic dip completely disappears.
The difference is $1.15bn net. Around $785 per share today.
(that’s the foregone operating earnings only, not trying to address any lasting hit to investments)
Note, inflation has been so significant lately that I do an adjustment for each quarter individually,
then sum four of those to get a trailing year inflation-adjusted figure.
The figures above measured in dollars with CPI 292.48.
Jim