Hi All,
Back from a fishing vacation in Homer, Alaska. I caught my first 100 lb. halibut :o)
Here’s my investment summary. I hope you find it helpful.
July 10, 2025 Portfolio Review
Year to Date Return
To escape market turmoil in March, I moved to 80% cash and options. Mid-May returned to the stock market, but I’ve also hedged my bets with a few options to derisk my portfolio (which I won’t discuss here). Why did I get back into the market? First, every time the market gets negative, Trump backs off of the tariffs. Second, most of my portfolio is tariff resistant.
Comments on Companies
Mercadolibre : There is 14% e-commerce penetration in Latin America, so there is substantial room for growth as technology grows in LA countries. Earnings are expected to grow at 23.8% over the next couple of years, but I think that they will be higher as currency effects from a weaker dollar will add an additional tailwind. The July 30 earnings report will provide further clarity.
Cloudflare: Cloudflare earnings are expected to grow at around 40% and revenues about 20% over the next few years. The largest enterprise deals in the company history have materialized, with one being reported at $100 million. The July 30 earnings report will provide further clarity.
Axon Enterprise Inc.: Axon provides equipment that improves safety, accountability, and reduces cost for law enforcement, but its PS is roughly 26, but it has a rock solid customer base, and its Draft One, AI police report generator has a lot of sales opportunities. I am selling covered calls that expire before the next earnings report. I won’t add to AXON unless its valuation gets about 30% lower, but I am trying to hold my position while strategically cashing in on options rather than outright selling positions.
Monday.com Ltd.: Free Cash Flow and Revenues are projected to grow 25-26%. Profitability is projected to increase by 12%. MNDY beat it’s EPS projection by 57% last quarter but fell 36% short the prior quarter. The prior 6 quarters before that MNDY beat earnings estimates by a super wide margin. I expect more great earnings reports to come in as they roll in their price increases. Recently, MNDY has included AI directly into their work flows to reduce customer’s labor. They continue to update CRM to track quotes, invoices, and email marketing.
Crowdstrike I am in the process of selling CRWD using calls to get a little bit of a premium. I’m not happy with their margins, and I think there are better growth opportunities out there.
Applovin They’ve sold off their gaming business and their apps to help with advertising and app growth. Their advertising margin is 81%, their advertising adjusted EBITA is growing at 92%, and their advertising revenue is growing at 71%. I’m excited to see how this more focused company does with earnings on August 6
Nebius Revenue is up 385% YOY. Nebius has optimized its AI stack for low power consumption and charges 34% less than its competitors. Nvidia is an investor and supplier for Nebius. EBITDA expected before the end of the year.
Best,
bulwnkl