President Trump on Friday took aim at another giant corporation in his ongoing trade war, threatening Apple (AAPL) with increased duties if the company does not make iPhones in the US. He also attacked the European Union and said he was recommending a “straight 50%” tariff on EU-imported products beginning next weekend.
Futures are down 1.5 to 2%. We know the administration has a record of making these threats and then backing down.
Buy the dip or sell the news?
I think buy the dip but I am already fully invested.
Seems a little early to me. I certainly agree that it is coming. But then, perhaps you are right. I am often overly optimistic.
I am still holding and will wait to see what happens between now and next weekend. I don’t believe he is going to stick with a 50% tariff on Europe or if he does, it won’t stay for long.
He always capitulates. It is going to happen. If not, he will tank this economy. The question is if he capitulates soon enough. Or he is removed for incompetence.
That said, I am staying concentrated in VFMV (US minimum volatility equities), VGK (Europe equities) and VXUS (world minus US equities). At this point in my investing career I no longer need home runs. I need singles and doubles and have little desire to ride the roller coasters I did 7-8-9 years ago.
I always said the “90 day pause” gave the world time to work out deals around us:
I am not a gold bug, but I’ve got a position in GLD, and it seems to be moving opposite from stocks ( SPY, QQQ, broad market, don’t mean individual stocks ), which I like.
Most everything I’ve been reading states that the Bond Market is not real happy with the BBB ( big beautiful bill ) that Trump and the red hats are ramming thru in the dead of night. The Bond Market seems to expect national debt to ramp up, dollar devaluing, inflation, etc. So I’ve have an approximately 4% position in GLD, based on all of those assumptions.
Otherwise, still heavy in short term fixed. I’m prepared mentally to stay there till Trump exits,lol, but I do not want to do that. Am well aware of how inflation erodes purchasing power of fixed income. But at this point in time, more concerned with return of principal than return on principal.
I am not totally out of stocks, as the Wall St types thrive on short term outlooks, they don’t care if the Country is gonna burn down in 5 years if they can make a buck now, so I can still feel the effects of that ride, if it happens.
There is more idiocy to come from the current admin.
Typical “JC” thinking. Given that the GIC has a long history of stiffing people, we need to look around at who the likely stiffee will be, to placate the money interests. I have mentioned before a conference by the Concord Coalition, that I happened to catch, maybe 15 years ago. One panelist summarized the position of the “starve the beast” advocate he was talking with, words to the effect “what you are saying is you will do nothing, until there is some sort of crisis, then tell all these old people, many of who have no other assets, “sorry, we can’t to it anymore”, and you don’t think there will be major economic and social repercussions?” What was probably unthinkable then, was the US having a regime that thought that “legal due process” was too expensive and time consuming to bother with, so “they” probably aren’t worried about social upheaval either, as long as they have theirs.
It’s “just” a question of when, not if. Recent history has shown not much will or staying power.
In the longer run, I could see courts ending or scaling back tariffs (pedantic defense: I’m just assuming the pending cases have some validity, I wouldn’t know the details), which would provide a little more long-term clarity than waiting for the markets to respond with “don’t touch.”
Do not trust in the courts. He successfully delayed them long enough to stay out of prison. The courts themselves worked too slowly to get him into prison in a timely manner. If we rely on the courts, we’re toast.
That was demonstrated in the last term. He is expert at keeping things tied up in litigation, for as long as he wants.
I think we will see a rerun of the Commie hysteria of the 50s. It ended because the people were exhausted. As I watch the network TV schedules fill up with insipid singing, and dancing, and game shows, I remember a piece I saw, decades ago, about how insipid TV became in the 50s, because the networks were afraid of retribution by TPTB. Seriously, “Hogan’s Heroes” has a lot more to say about authoritarianism than anything on today.
True dat. The reconciliation bill passed by the House also aims to reconcile the judiciary’s check on the executive.
“No court of the United States may use appropriated funds to enforce a contempt citation for failure to comply with an injunction or temporary restraining order if no security was given when the injunction or order was issued …”
I know, I know…it hasn’t passed the Senate. There’s nothing to worry about, right?
Possible but there is always that one time where he ate a Big Mac, has indegestion, and decides to stay in bed the next day and forget to extend the Tariffs. MCD’s is going to catch up to him eventually.