Capitula5ion Watch #2

Kevin, a YouTuber with a fair size following has “sold his entire port” after just a week or so ago saying to “HODL”. He’s apparently now getting an inbox full of hate.

The markets DOVE this morning, … indicating lots of (panic?) selling.
But, there must have been some “buying the dip”… no?

The afternoon saw the markets bounce… a lot of my holdings are up 10% from the morning’s “low”.

Is this capitulation?
I’m seeing and “feeling” some angst. But, so far, it’s not yet widespread enough to be “capitulation”.

I’m Watching for more:

  1. When more HODL’rs switch to “SELL!”, that’ll be an indicator.
  2. More market drops that STAY down (rather than bounce 10%), will be another indicator.
  3. ?? More generalized angst… LOLOLOLOL.

I wonder if I’ll recognize the capitulation, when it happens?
I didn’t do so good in March-May2020!

:scream:
ralph

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Is this capitulation?
I’m seeing and “feeling” some angst. But, so far, it’s not yet widespread enough to be “capitulation”.

You can only tell what happened after it happened. :wink:

We need confirmation. Looking at charts what I see is…

Monday’s candlesticks for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ: There were a lot of buyers with lots of cash to buy the dip, it could be limit orders kicking in, first stop loss orders pushing the price down and later buy limit orders pushing the price back up. The S&P 500 rebounded stronger than NASDAQ. Tesla’s charts shows a potential double bottom:

SPX - https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp…
COMP - https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp…
TSLA - https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp…

I’m waiting for confirmation. Tom Nash is of the opinion that the crash is not over based mostly on the idea that the Fed will have to raise rates more to fight inflation but others are saying that inflation is transitory for two different reasons, Kathie Wood because technology is deflationary, true but in a much longer timeframe, while others say it’s because of supply disruption which is a much shorter timeframe. A third opinion might be that battery shortage is a longer term concern because it takes years to get new production online. This is actually good news for Tesla because demand will outstrip production allowing Tesla to jack up prices and show insane margins.

Then there is the animal consideration: Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.

Pre market still shows negative, NASDAQ more the S&P 500

I’m still just stalking my buys… Patience Grasshopper… Listen to the market…

Enphase Energy Inc. (NAS) is not done yet - https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp…

Denny Schlesinger

PS: NASDAQ Monday had some serious giant volume!

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