That’s a good way of putting it. For BEV’s, I think it’s going to be more like the transition of televisions from cathode-ray tubes to LCD’s - a significant incremental change, and one that has a number of impacts on the manufacture and use of televisions, but not revolutionary.
Self-driving vehicles would be more on the revolutionary side. I think that tech represents far more than an incremental improvement. There, we disagree on the relative position of Tesla’s efforts. I’m just skeptical about whether Tesla’s strategy will actually result in a substantial advantage for them.
They’ve done amazing things in trying to solve the broadest type of self-driving problem - Level 5 autonomy using almost entirely vision. But I think there’s a very good chance that they won’t be able to solve that problem until well after many other auto companies have fully and thoroughly solved Level 4 autonomy using other sensors and tools - at least for enough areas that solving Level 5 isn’t really that much of an improvement. You don’t need to solve the general case if you’ve solved all the specific cases that really matter. And since Level 4 probably works better with existing regulatory and safety frameworks, at least during the initial adoption phase, Tesla’s adding to their difficulty even beyond the greater hurdles in developing the tech.