Manheim publishes the sales trends and maintains an index. Below is the latest quarter presentation.
here is the used vehicle Index
So you are looking for another one to two quarters of falling prices. As the falling prices flows through the inventory, sales, in another 2 to 3 quarter things will normalize from the inventory and sales point of view. I don’t know what is the lag for the default rates to show up from sales, I would like to see the default rates of cohorts from Jun 2021 with 2018, 2018 or prior period to see how the price impacts default rates and if we can overlay economic condition on top of that, would be awesome.
Ignoring the default rates, KMX stock should be forming bottom soon.