There is a lot to process
Ideally, consumers get better financing (rates) and deals with new car than used car. But clearly, there is a huge market for used cars and there are many folks who buy them for variety of reasons, primarily affordability. If you wonder how come someone buying a used car for $30 K having an affordability issue, they cannot afford the same make and model new car.
I firmly believe people are spending beyond their means in cars, but that’s me.
There are many cross currents like folks didn’t drive for almost a year, working from home, manufacturer strikes have resulted in new car sales being low. This will normalize but it may not go back to pre-pandemic.
Now let us switch to focus only on KMX.
Earlier in this thread I posted on the KMX margin, the real culprit is falling car prices means, the cars in KMX inventory are depreciating, which is reflected in the COGS.
Secondly, there is a default wave that is hitting and going to hit KMX in a bigger way, which means their financing arm is going to take a bigger hit. There are folks (who no longer posts in TMF) argued the financing is completely ring-fenced, sadly, they have never read the 10-Q, or 10-K. KMX takes initial hit on those ABS loans. So the bond holder is protected because KMX will re-posses the car on the default loan, sell and deposit the money to the securitization, but there are incidental costs and losses, bulk of which KMX absorbs. So when there is a higher default than the model, KMX makes less profit in their finance arm. Remember this is their biggest profit engine.
Like I mentioned there is going to be higher default because the post-pandemic cohorts are experiencing higher defaults than the trend. So this will play out in the next few quarters.
Separately, post-pandemic new car sales were weak, meaning it reduces the supply for the used car market, which is keeping the used car prices higher and getting back to trend line.
Lot of these things tie to the used car prices. If it glides gently, the stock is range-bound, if it falls sharply back to the pre-pandemic trend line, KMX can have kitchen sink quarter and the stock can rebound. Why KMX will have kitchen sink quarter, remember, I talked about the incidental costs associated with higher defaults, KMX will update the model and take a charge (this is my expectation), so that they can move on and tell a growth story, growing online sales and how they are using AI, etc.
We don’t have a recession and the used car prices are not falling back sharply. So the story plays out.
Separately, the stock price is rather resilient or high given all the headwinds for the next several quarters.