Casey's Reports 2016 Q4 Earnings

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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For those who still follow Casey’s, they reported their fourth quarter earnings today. From their press release:

Casey’s General Stores, Inc. (Nasdaq symbol CASY) today reported diluted earnings per share of $1.19 for the fourth quarter of fiscal year ended April 30, 2016 compared to $1.05 for the same period a year ago. For the year, diluted earnings per share grew 24% to $5.73 versus $4.62 for the same period last year. “Fiscal 2016 was an exciting year for Casey’s. We successfully opened our second distribution center in Terre Haute, Indiana, and launched our mobile app in conjunction with rolling out on-line ordering across all our stores,” said Terry Handley, President and CEO. “Total gross profit was up over 12% for the year and the Company is positioned well for continued strong performance in fiscal 2017.”

And here’s the latest on their expansion plans:

The Company’s annual goal was to build or acquire 75 to 113 stores, replace 10 existing locations, and complete 100 major remodels. For the fiscal year, the Company completed 51 new store constructions and acquired 5 stores. The Company also completed 11 replacement stores and 102 major remodels. “We have dedicated more resources to our store development area over the past year. As a result, we currently have a robust pipeline of projects with 21 stores under construction and an additional 75 sites under contract for future new store construction, including numerous sites in Ohio,” stated Handley. “With our new distribution center in Terre Haute, we can efficiently build or acquire in a considerably larger geographical footprint.”

See the entire press release at http://www.caseys.com/sites/default/files/4thQtrfy2016.pdf

Analysts were expecting EPS to come in at $1.22, so shares look down about 2% as I write.

Here are their latest numbers:


Revenue (billions)	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4
2014							1.790		1.920
2015			2.291		2.150		1.672		1.654
2016			2.049		1.925		1.566		1.583

EPS (Diluted)		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	
2014							0.33		0.54	
2015			1.28		1.28		1.01		1.05
2016			1.57		2.00		0.97		1.19

Current (2016 Q4 Earnings):

Revenue Growth (billions)
2015 Q4 TTM Revenue = 7.767
2016 Q4 TTM Revenue = 7.15
Year Over Year Revenue Growth = (8.6)%

EPS Growth (diluted)
2015 Q4 TTM Earnings = 4.62
2016 Q4 TTM Earnings = 5.73
Year Over Year EPS Growth = 19.37%

P/E (Check Current Price) = 123.77/5.73 = 21.6

1YPEG = 21.6/19.37 = 1.11

Matt
Long CASY
MasterCard (MA) and PayPal (PYPL) Ticker Guide
See all my holdings at http://my.fool.com/profile/CMFCochrane/info.aspx

19 Likes
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Doh!

I’m so sorry but I messed up the EPS growth earlier. The EPS growth was 24% not 19.37%. I took the difference between 2016’s and 2015’s Q4 TTM earnings and divided it by the 2016 total, not the 2015 total.

This would make the 1YPEG = 0.9, not 1.11.

Very sorry! I should have double checked before posting. Lesson learned for next time.

Matt
Long CASY
MasterCard (MA) and PayPal (PYPL) Ticker Guide
See all my holdings at http://my.fool.com/profile/CMFCochrane/info.aspx

1 Like
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Q1 2015 EPS should be $1.34?

nomb
Long CASY

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Prepared Food and Fountain comps are a concern. The company promised 10% Y/Y growth. They did that in the first 6 month of FY16 but whiffed badly in the second half coming in around 7% give or take. That’s a glaring miss for the year.

Now, instead of guiding for the 7% comps that they are actually achieving, they again promise 10.2% growth for FY17. That’s a bad setup as they have not been able to deliver on it in the last 6 months!

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Q1 2015 EPS should be $1.34?

Hey Nomb, good catch! You’re right. I did some investigating, double checking everything, and when you click on their 2016 Q1 earnings report (reported September 9, 2015) from their IR site it takes you to their 2016 Q2 report. Thus when I thought I was getting their reported EPS from a year ago I was really getting their numbers from their previous Q2 report. So thanks for catching that.

https://www.caseys.com/press_and_documents

I’ll update the numbers tonight. Thanks.

Now, instead of guiding for the 7% comps that they are actually achieving, they again promise 10.2% growth for FY17. That’s a bad setup as they have not been able to deliver on it in the last 6 months!

Yeah, its weird that they would over-promise and under-deliver in this day and age. Most companies try to do the opposite. Given that its coming up on summer season, when Americans drive more, they might be able to meet these goals again in the first half of their fiscal year. Hopefully they’ll figure out why they missed these goals in the second half this year and be able to rectify the problem next year.

The new distribution plant and the third one already being planned should hopefully help them expand quicker going forward.

Matt
Long CASY
MasterCard (MA) and PayPal (PYPL) Ticker Guide
See all my holdings at http://my.fool.com/profile/CMFCochrane/info.aspx