*The key figure CATL mentioned this week is that its sodium-ion batteries, which have gotten up to 175 Wh/kg of energy density, could be used in normal passenger electric vehicles providing 500 km (311 miles) of range in 2026. That’s the current sweet spot of what’s expected in a new electric car. *
CATL intends to sell sodium-ion batteries into all sorts of industry segments — passenger EVs, commercial EVs, and stationary energy storage systems.
The world’s largest battery manufacturer resolves sodium-ion manufacturing barriers and targets Q4 2026 mass production. Run the substitution math against current lithium investments, and the numbers suggest billions in stranded capital.
CATL’s Chief Scientist Wu Kai confirmed the same day that the company has resolved the core manufacturing challenges blocking commercial-scale output.
Each 100 kWh of LFP battery requires roughly 6 to 7 kg of lithium carbonate equivalent, which means 30 percent substitution eliminates 70,200 tonnes of LCE demand annually, rising to 93,600 tonnes at 40 percent. Global lithium demand in 2025 sits near 900,000 tonnes LCE, so the high-end CATL scenario wipes out roughly 10 percent of total projected demand.
Methinks stranded capital is an overstatement:
Sodium-Ion batteries ease the demand upon lithium.
And puts China in the cat’s bird seat.
China controls approximately 97 percent of global sodium-ion production capacity
*Sodium-ion batteries use no lithium, no cobalt, and no nickel, relying instead on sodium from table salt, hard carbon from agricultural biomass, iron, manganese, and aluminum foil where lithium cells use copper. Every one of those inputs is globally abundant and cheap. *
Robin Zeng’s 30 to 40 percent replacement target is an aspiration, not an independent forecast. BloombergNEF and Wood Mackenzie have projected sodium-ion capturing 5 to 10 percent of the battery market by 2030.
I wouldn’t bet against China in EVs & EV related subjects.
I would say China has again stole a march against the West technologically.
Today’s manufacturing output continues to rely on established liquid electrolyte technologies. Data from China EV DataTracker indicate that CATL’s installed capacity climbed to 33.08 GWh in May 2026, up from 29.06 GWh in April. Despite ongoing research, solid-state chemistries remain at level 4 on the nine-point Technology Readiness Level scale, confined to laboratory validation and prototype demonstration stages.
to an independent teardown published in the Cell Press journal Cell Reports Physical Science.
Researchers at Germany’s RWTH Aachen University measured cell-to-cell resistance varying by just 5.3% across 120 cells — a sign of tightly controlled mass production rivaling the best lithium cells on the market.
The standout finding was structural. The Hina cell uses a “tabless, double-aluminum current collector design that reduces resistance and ensures a uniform temperature distribution — and also mirrors the current design of Tesla batteries,” the researchers wrote.
That tabless architecture is the same headline feature Tesla introduced with its 4680 cell. The researchers say this is the first commercially available sodium-ion battery to use it. Sodium-ion has a structural cost advantage here, too: it can use aluminum current collectors on both sides of the cell, while lithium-ion requires more expensive copper on the anode side.
2 drawbacks:
1)The first is energy density. “Today’s commercial sodium-ion cells generally have lower energy density than the best lithium-ion cells.
The above is well known.
2) The second is cold-weather charging. Sodium handles cold discharge well, but charging is the problem. “For applications that require frequent charging at low ambient temperatures, appropriate thermal management or operating strategies will be important because low-temperature charging remains a clear weakness,” Schütte said.