2023 to 2024
v
2025 to 2026
No contest. Inflation from 2025 will make your head spin off.
Lower taxes and tariffs, you haven’t got a hope.
Your entire portfolio is going to take a hit. Your buying power will drop like a rock.
Have fun you, generic, might actually deserve it.
All crimes forgotten.
New crimes committed.
A third impeachment. Any crystal ball can see that much. 2026 is going to be very interesting.
Inflation will run between 20 to 40% for the two year period.
I guess we can revisit this thread in about 2 years from now.
I am talking both years combined as over 20%. Part of that might not reflect the decline in your asset values. Particularly equities. Equity values are tricky. Compound that assessment with a very real alert that we could face a recession if buying power dries up.
The tariffs will happen. Perhaps 80% or whatever but will happen.
The tax cuts might not. If they do add to the fire of inflation.
Regardless of the international value of the USD against other currencies we will see a devaluing of the USD.
Is this IRL or on some fantasy online game?
Note that tariffs are applied on the wholesale import value, not the retail price sold in the US.
Mike
Importers do not just “pass on” the amount of the tariff. They add a profit margin because the tariffs require an additional cash outlay to pay for the goods. The entire cost gets marked up, not just the purchase price paid to the manufacturer.
Let’s get with it.
US corporations make a lot of the goods we import particularly factories we set up in China. Some of the goods are made here.
All goods global and US will go up in price. The US corporations mercilessly will use this to hike their prices.
This is 60% on everything. You are lucky I am not calling for the entire 60%, the TFG is. US corporations producing products here will want that 60% built-in for themselves.
The return on capital needs to remain the same for main street retailers. They won’t do any welfare work for you.
Sure, sometimes. But if a similar product is made in the US or country with no tariff then they might not be able to. That (sometimes) is the whole point of the tariff.
Or maybe a product is imported that is only a component of a bigger product (like memory in a phone or a computer) so the whole product does not increase in price by the tariff.
I am generally not in favor of any broad tariffs…maybe only for products with big government support.
Mike
Trumps point here seems rational. I don’t know the counter to this.
USA has trade deficits every month, every year.
Here’s an interesting article on the U.S. using tariffs since its founding.
What Is a Tariff? | HISTORY
That prior history has nothing to do with the current set of ideas.
You need to do this if you are a reserve currency for the world. Don’t want trade deficits? Be prepared to have the demand for the dollar plummet and be replaced.
Be careful what you wish for.