CEVA - for those in AMBA, AIOCF, SWKS, MBLY

In case anyone is interested how the story ended…
CEVA is breaking through $30 to a 52 week high and closing in on its all time high.

Q2 results were a meet and beat with a 28% revenue growth and 250% earnings growth (EPS)…
http://seekingalpha.com/news/3199125-ceva-beats-0_03-revenue…
http://seekingalpha.com/pr/16567049-ceva-inc-announces-secon…

Earnings per share progress now looks like this in cents…

16 Q2 21
16 Q1 17
15 Q4 17
15 Q3 22
15 Q2 6
15 Q1 8
14 Q4 8
14 Q3 12
14 Q2 0
14 Q1 16

Ant

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To continue the story guys - the progress looks good and consistent, CEVA pre-announced year end numbers this week. The licensing activity and the numbers are very interesting and that leaves me with some research and thinking to do on this in order to disambiguate the intel impact within iPhone and the broader longer term opportunity (http://seekingalpha.com/article/4007619-ceva-story-just-appl…) - I’m hoping the eventual

Here’s the pre-announcement…
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ceva-announces-record-reve…

Here are the earnings numbers since I last posted in this thread…

16 Q4 24-26 pre-announced
16 Q3 24 (ahead of the ultra strong Q3 2015 compare)
16 Q2 21
16 Q1 17
15 Q4 17
15 Q3 22
15 Q2 6
15 Q1 8
14 Q4 8
14 Q3 12
14 Q2 0
14 Q1 16

If we look at revenues - these are estimated at above guidance at an all-time high too - $21.2m vs guidance of $18.5-19.5m. Whilst growing slightly with a lot of erratic seesawing in the numbers along the way (top and bottom line), since mid 2015 with the LTE roll out hitting full steam and the RivierraWave acquisition bedding in, Ceva numbers has been demonstrating the very model of growth.

16 Q4 21.20m
16 Q3 17.85m
16 Q2 17.10m
16 Q1 16.50m
15 Q4 16.07m
15 Q3 16.24m
15 Q2 13.40m
15 Q1 13.83m
14 Q4 13.82m
14 Q3 14.09m
14 Q2 9.20m
14 Q1 13.70m

Returning to the article in the link at the beginning of this post, I have been caught in 2 minds whether:

  1. This is proving a short term bounce based on Intel (and therefore Ceva) winning a modem slot in a model of the iPhone and Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 810 getting kicked out of Samsung - leaving Ceva with an opportunity but with Qualcomm’s 820 back in Samsung and Intel’s modem under performing Qualcomm’s significantly - these gains could be very quickly reversed;

versus…

  1. If actually and looking at the licensing activity these gains are coming from deep learning, visual intelligence, smart home and automotive arenas; then Ceva may actually have a long road of growth ahead of it and immune from short term Intel type boosts.

To make things interesting - Ceva announced a clutch of design wins at CES in January already… with Altek, DeepGlint and On Semi:-
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/altek-license-ceva-imaging…
Clearly not everyone at Ceva were partying it up in Vegas as in the meantime they were signing deals in Shenzhen for IoT audio:-
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shenzhen-micro-nano-instit…
and back in Q4 they were pushing the boundaries of their bluetooth technology release program and vision intelligence developments and announcing further licensing deals:-
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ceva-leads-bluetooth-5-ip-…
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/himax-emza-ceva-partner-cr…
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/srt-group-license-ceva-sig…

So just when I thought I might take the money off the table having reached the summit - there maybe further mountains to climb.

Ant

I’m hoping the eventual
err - should have read…
I’m hoping the eventual earnings call transcript and analyst Q&A might shed light on that.
Ant

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Err am I imagining it or has the Fool completely done away with board search functionality? Ok with help from Google and none from TMF’s pitiful remaining search function and to continue this thread…

The results are out:-
http://seekingalpha.com/pr/16729287-ceva-inc-announces-fourt…

The forward guidance beat expectations and the shares tanked.

No transcript yet but with Qualcomm in the litigation dog house it offers Intel and CEVA a ray of hope for continued Apple business along with their uber strong IoT success.
Ant

Err am I imagining it or has the Fool completely done away with board search functionality?

You are not imagining it, FoolSearch is AWOL. :frowning:

Denny Schlesinger

Somehow I get the feeling that MF regards the boards as a nuisance.
When to me they are the most important part of MF. No corrections after posting (a feature found on services like investors hub) now no search.

While I find MF recommendations useful ,I find some of the posters even more useful.

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As you may have noticed - CEVA is by a long way the highest % gainer out of all my current holdings in my monthly portfolio review.

With Apple looking as though it is going to go nuclear on Qualcomm in favour of either Intel or an in-house chipset CEVA looks like it could be in for a good run. It is also very well positioned for 5G and for the next wave of bluetooth and Visual AI (e.g. ADAS etc).

They have just announced results which take the consistency in business performance to another level. Adding to the numbers I recorded previously, here are the revenues and earnings track record.
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/16821121-ceva-inc-announces-firs…

EPS numbers

17 Q1 28
16 Q4 32
16 Q3 24 (ahead of the ultra strong Q3 2015 compare)
16 Q2 21
16 Q1 17
15 Q4 17
15 Q3 22
15 Q2 6
15 Q1 8
14 Q4 8
14 Q3 12
14 Q2 0
14 Q1 16

Ceva revenue numbers are now demonstrating consistently solid double digit growth (every Q for the last 2 years). They seem to be settling around the 30% YoY growth rate.

17 Q1 21.29m
16 Q4 21.20m
16 Q3 17.85m
16 Q2 17.10m
16 Q1 16.50m
15 Q4 16.07m
15 Q3 16.24m
15 Q2 13.40m
15 Q1 13.83m
14 Q4 13.82m
14 Q3 14.09m
14 Q2 9.20m
14 Q1 13.70m

They are becoming a worthy successor to my ARM fabless IP licensing investment…
Ant

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You’ve piqued my interest, Ant. I’ll start doing some serious research. Thanks!

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They are becoming a worthy successor to my ARM fabless IP licensing investment… Ant
Ant

OK, Ant, you convinced me. I spent the entire morning getting a handle on the business and the financials. I liked what I saw, but it is an expensive company sporting a market cap ~ 10 annual revenues. Plus, insiders like to award themselves lotsa options for quick cash-outs. Sigh. Taking everything into consideration, I placed a GTC order to buy an entry position at $37.00. Meanwhile, I’ll keep studying the company. Like you, I’m rather partial to the ARM business model of fabless IP licensing.

Thanks for the heads up!

Sure mate. If you want to play it safe you could wait till the iPhone 8 release tear down to see if Intel clean sweeps the modem chips away from Qualcomm. If that does happen it will be a big kicker for CEVA.
Ant

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