Btw/ Maintaining China’s growth is a political imperative in China for multiple reasons. A trade war with China’s largest market would be politically disastrous for China.
On the other hand, China owns a lot of our government debt, and forcing China into a position that causes China to sell off those bonds would jack up interest rates in the United States, and our own government debt is what, near $20 trillion now? Doubled or more in the last 8 years. This was possible due to low interest rates.
I don’t see how either country could conceivably push a trade war and think it will be to their advantage. On the other hand, there are many measures on the margins, that depending on negotiating strength, China may be willing to concede.
We shall see. But that is what I think is going on in regard to Chinese trade.
Tinker