Why are you convinced there will be a recession? You don’t seem to allow for the possibility that we wont have one.
The front-running first quarter massive imports will not be repeated. And, some of that may still be included in investments (inventories) in the second quarter.
Personally, I think there is a decent chance we won’t have one. I think 2nd quarter GDP will be flat but positive (not that the official definition of recession requires two consecutive negative quarters, but it helps) and if we don’t see a substantial increase in unemployment, I am not convinced we will have one - EVEN IF the market sells off regardless. Keep in mind that market can sell off dramatically (see 2022) even when GDP and unemployment are good.
I think the unknown part of this will be consumer spending and I don’t think we will see that drop off until the 3rd quarter.
Hawkwin
Who has the best navel lint.