This is the automation that the Longshoremen fear.
intercst
4 Likes
China’s unemployment rate has been around 5% for the past few years, including in 2023 when it was 5.2%. In August 2024, the surveyed unemployment rate in China’s urban areas was 5.3%, up from 5.2% in the previous month.
China’s youth unemployment rate is more volatile than the overall unemployment rate, and can be a sign of economic challenges. In July 2023, China’s youth unemployment rate was 17.1%, the highest it had been that year. In December 2023, the rate was 14.9%, but this was after the government changed the methodology to exclude students. The previous high for youth unemployment was over 21% in June 2023, and it reached as high as 40% in rural areas.
1 Like
Production and efficiency trumps unemployment. You can have 100 people digging a hole or one excavator. It doesn’t make sense to have someone doing a job that a machine can do. This has been the way of the world since the beginning of time. Only “tools” fight tools. You want everyone to be more productive. It is better for society.
2 Likes
Well, that story managed to squeeze in every trendy technology buzzword, didn’t it? 5G. Cloud-Computing. AI. Robots.
The reality is that this level of automation has been POSSIBLE for probably two decades. The requirements are:
- standardization of container sizes and outer “handles” – the means by which a container can be picked up and lashed together with other containers (in place since the 1980s)
- radio based instrumentation allowing the “identity” and exact position of each container to be detected and tracked continuously (do-able since probably 2004, definitely do-able since the advent of RFiD tags)
- computer controlled gantry cranes (probably since the 1990s)
- digital standardization of container manifests so the contents, source, destination and hazmat characteristics can be incorporated into loading / unloading plans (probably in place since the 1990s)
The algorithm to slot containers onto a ship has to accomodate
- the ship’s basic cargo hold dimensions
- the ship’s unique nautical characteristics (bouyancy, vertical center of gravity, etc.)
- restrictions on where hazardous materials should be loaded
- which containers need to be unloaded at interim stops (if any)
- what slots are already occupied from prior ports
This isn’t an “AI” or “machine learning” problem, it’s a brute force problem involving lots of linear algebra and thousands of data elements.
The real limiting factor that is delaying adoption of this level of automation is the labor factor, but not the one you would first assume. Yes, existing workers might be reluctant to have technology replace them. However, the real “labor” problem is it is very difficult to “migrate” to full automation. The entire port has to be designed from scratch for full automation so traffic flows DON’T have to accomodate humans being somewhere unexpected on a continual basis.
Unless a new port is being built from scratch with this operating model, it would be very difficult to achieve this level of automation unless 100% of the work can and will use the automation. It makes perfect sense that China is the first to build one of these fully automated ports. They are the only country with rapidly growing exports that can justify the construction of a completely new port with no existing labor contingent that must be placated. No one “lost their job” when this brand new port was built.
At some point though, this dynamic will require consideration in other ports in other countries. Perhaps when flat or shrinking populations make labor availability a problem and a country’s young workers decide they’d rather work indoors inventing video games or financial engineering scams then work outdoors unloading other people’s stuff that they cannot affort.
There is one puzzling statistic in that video… As summarized by the narrator, the new technology allows processing of 36 containers per hour instead of 28 with humans involved. Don’t both of those numbers seem low? He mentions that port has 76 completely robotic trucks working 24x7. With computers able to schedule moves to avoid vehicles crossing paths or worrying about squishing humans in the way, wouldn’t you think those 76 trucks would be in nearly CONTINUOUS motion moving containers into position to be dropped onto ships or plucked off of ships and positioned for haul-away?
Imagine a port 2 miles in length oriented East-West with intermodal drop offs on the West end and ships on the East end. A robotic truck driving 20mph would only take 6 minutes to carry a container West to East from drop-off to the ship end. Even if that robotic truck hauls nothing productive when returning East to West for the next ship-bound container, that’s 5 containers per hour per truck. If the software running the port can find another container that needs to move from ship to pick-up on the intermodal side, that robotic truck can handle 10 productive loads per hour. For 76 trucks, that’s 760 containers PER HOUR. A typical container ship can carry around 24,000 standard 20-foot containers. If it takes 3 days to load a typical ship, that would require a load rate of around 333 containers per hour per ship.
I think something is off with his numbers somewhere.
WTH
5 Likes
I was pointing out the verbotin topic. The country is unstable and that is going to get worse. That trumps economics. Eventually.
China is not efficient. Where’d you get that idea?
The US is not efficient. God forbid. We need reasons/problems to make money.
The bottom line is that efficiency is nothing, nothing left, nothing. Inefficiency is buying your teenager a BMW for her birthday. In my neighborhood quite common. It does not matter how BMW makes the car. BWM marks up the car.
This is not a discussion on whether China is efficient or not but who’s ports are more efficient. I am all for labor, hope they win big in their contracts, but I would never be against progress. It is a losing battle.
Let’s say I “could” run the ports with just robots and automation. Do you think I would care if anyone went on strike? I would just lock them out. What the Unions should do is train their people in the jobs that will be still around not for the jobs that will be going away.
Agreed
The union will negotiate the jobs that are needed in a semi automation.
Exactly!
A decade ago I worked on the political side of a plan to transform the joint Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach via automation of freight handling integrated with both local and long distance rail transport. The payoffs would have been enormous, but the initial costs were formidable and the labor issues were simply insurmountable. However, the ability to shift almost 85% of the harbor real estate from low value warehousing, haphazard, polluting, and often jammed transport freight, and primitive loading unloading operations over to dense ocean view housing real estate provided staggering payoffs far beyond the costs.
We could not find a strategy that could overcome union resistance and political innumerancy and ignorance.
d fb
5 Likes
Today as we get into demand-side economics we are still early in the capitalization of the process.
In the Netherlands they went full automation through the use of huge payouts.
DB2
3 Likes
It will be fun to watch someone trying to negotiate with a robot.
In the OP video, Cyrus J says China has proven the concept and now stands ready to “help” their neighbors and deserving countries build similar fully automated ports. (Paraphrase).
China is finishing the Chancay Mega Port on the Pacific coast of Peru, just north of Lima.
I looked for descriptions of the port operations and whether or not it’ll be fully automated.
So far, I’ve not found that detail.
This .mil article
Buried in the “Sources” section:
{ The port of Chancay would finally be inaugurated in November 2024 with cutting-edge technology…‘we hope to finish the port at the end of November 2024 and inaugurate it on that date taking advantage of the APEC Summit’… }
End of Nov 2024.
I’ve not found a description of “cutting edge tech”.
This is a .mil source, and warns:
{ In recent years, Chinese-owned and operated deep-water ports around the world have captured the attention of many analysts for their dual-use potential, for both commercial and military purposes.[i] In the past, China has used its owned and operated ports as logistical points and ports of call for the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). }
Previously, there were comments on METAR about EU concerns about Chinese ports, freight hubs, infrastructure in Eastern Europe (Turkiye, Bulgaria, Hungary, etc), being potential “beach heads” for Chinese military use.
Sri Lanka and Solomon Islands have "agreements " with China to upgrade, maintain, and manage their ports.
The US n West have expressed concern over “dual use”.
China has Poohed these concerns.
Here’s a tracker dashboard for Chinese ports around the world.
{ The China Overseas Ports interactive visualizes degrees of China’s overseas port ownership by types of investment across regions and time. It also evaluates the dual-use (commercial and military) potential of ports. }
It seems obvious that “fully automated” would be useful in a “beach head” moment.
ralph added the bolding.
2 Likes