Chumps Chasing China

[eldemonio]

For the nerds - Interesting report on Chinese lending and how the west is playing catch-up -

Chasing_China_Full_Report.pdf

For the blogsters (same information, better presentation) -

China’s massive overseas lending portfolio shifts course, as Beijing eyes the U.S., EU, and sensitive industries.

“The overall size of China’s portfolio is two-to-four times larger than previously published estimates suggest,” said Brad Parks, AidData’s Executive Director and the lead author of the report. The over three-hundred-page-long publication—Chasing China: Learning to Play by Beijing’s Global Lending Rules—finds that more than three-quarters of China’s overseas lending operations now support projects and activities in upper-middle income countries and high-income countries. “Much of the lending to wealthy countries is focused on critical infrastructure, critical minerals, and the acquisition of high-tech assets, like semiconductor companies,” said Parks."

China is set up politically and economically to whoop our 屁股!

[flyerboys]

Thank you, a critical set of facts completely overlooked.

[1poorguy]

@eldemonio

China is set up politically and economically to whoop our 屁股!

I saw a similar article just this morning. China plays the long game. I was too young at the time, but when I was older I knew that Nixon going to China was a mistake. And I vehemently opposed China getting MFN trading status. They were, and still are, an enemy of this country (and the west in general). Now they are starting to become more assertive, enabled by our short-term greed (i.e. cheap labor) for more than 50 years. They are threatening Taiwan, the Philippines, and Vietnam, and even Japan.

I fully expect to be in a shooting war with them in 10 years or less. We will have to come to the aid of Japan, Taiwan, and/or the Philippines, by various treaties. Unless we have a feckless POTUS and/or Congress.

Maybe time to invest in Raytheon, RTX, and General Dynamics.

[eldemonio]

@1poorguy

I was too young at the time, but when I was older I knew that Nixon going to China was a mistake.

I dunno, we got some pandas outta that trip.

Most of the pain points the US is experiencing today have been self-inflicted from failed foreign policy / trade decisions.

Timeline: U.S.-China Relations

[tjscott0]

I’m late to the party. I should have reviewed the thread before I posted:

‘China was Playing Chess while the rest of us were Paying Checkers’

Bombshell study finds $200 billion of secret loans to U.S. businesses over 25 years For years, Washington has been warning others not to trust loans from Chinese state banks fueling its rise as a superpower. But a new report reveals an ironic twist: The United States is the biggest recipient of all — by far. And the security and technology implications have yet to be fully understood. More alarming, much of the lending was to help Chinese companies buy stakes in U.S. businesses, many tied to …

AHA! The question in my mind is:"Has the recent Chinese technology breakthroughs been based on domestic brainpower or theft from industrial espionage???

[tjscott0]

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3yAVZk3tyA]

If anyone is interested in some of the inner workings of the Chinese economy, this is a worthwhile listen (watch).

From Wikipedia:
Jin Keyu (Chinese: 金刻羽; born 13 November 1982) is a Chinese economist. She is currently associate professor of economics at the London School of Economics and a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader, specializing in international macroeconomics and the Chinese economy. Her research focuses on global trade imbalances, global asset prices and China’s economic growth model.

56:58 - China’s view on innovation and copying ideas
"The US will lead for sometime on breakthroughs, on disruptive technologies, the zero to one technologies, that ultimately change the world.
But innovation is a process. It goes from invention to production and commercialization and diffusion, diffusing technology throughout all parts of the economy. And on those two stages, I think China has an unique advantage, even if they can’t do the zero to one breakthroughs. Because in the end, how much is this technology is adopted by the countries and by the various parts of the economy is fundamentally crucial to how much productivity will be unleashed. And China’s innovation currently, the DeepSeek is one example And I think it is really the beginning of the scale-based, leading edge technology, cost-cutting driven kind of innovation model could be just as powerful, maybe even more effective and powerful than the breakthroughs. And a very different approach to innovation, *the Chinese companies focus on solutions, and problem solving."

Keyu Jin claims the Chinese education system drives the solution, problem solving aptitudes. The student and STEM folks are driven externally-money. US stem researchers are internally motivated. Yes financial aspect but an individual need for knowledge. She believes the Chinese education system is evolving to the US education system.
And methinks the Chinese is the best in the world in production and commercialization. EVs are an example of that. And the Chinese ability to fast adaptive production and diffusion led the great leap in the increase of the size of their economy.

“And China currently has an AI Plus program,which is about pushing AI into every plausible sector with the help of the state. So adoption diffusion is very important.”

The US is also in a rush to AI diffusion. Personally I believe in the US it will lead to a bubble similar to the dot.com bubble that burst in 2000-2001. As The Chinese push is driven by the state; I wonder if the China state can take the foot off the gas pedal to prevent an economic bubble.
In the EV sector; they have been a bit slow and an domestic EV price war is occurring. But EV production has been cut a bit and export of EVs has been surging. China very well may avoid an EV production implosion.

[eldemonio]

@tjscott0

AHA! The question in my mind is:"Has the recent Chinese technology breakthroughs been based on domestic brainpower or theft from industrial espionage???

Why does it matter?

@tjscott0

As The Chinese push is driven by the state; I wonder if the China state can take the foot off the gas pedal to prevent an economic bubble.

The risk is different in China. There’s more risk associated with underinvestment and misallocation of investment. The government is focused on funding infrastructure and real world application of AI…which seems less risky to me.

In the US, we’re living in a speculative AI dominated market funded by circular deals and increasing levels of hidden debt. The bonkers level of money being thrown at AI is justified by pie-in-the-sky AGI use scenarios that are unlikely to pan out soon, if ever.

“OpenAI has said it’s going to spend $500 billion on data centers in the United States alone to drive these technologies. Let’s stop for a second and think about what that means. $500 billion in today’s money could fund about 15 Manhattan Projects.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/podcasts/the-daily/ai-bubble-silicon-valley-openai-data-centers.html?showTranscript=1

That’s one company…bonkers. If the US isn’t already at the woodshed, we’re sprinting toward our inevitable whooping.

[Tamhas]

@eldemonio

Most of the pain points the US is experiencing today have been self-inflicted from failed foreign policy / trade decisions.

Unlike the present …

[eldemonio]

@Tamhas

Unlike the present …

In the past we could chalk it up to “What they couldn’t do, I can do better” syndrome. Informed hubris.

More and more it seems like we’re dealing with a different kind of hubris.

The UK has Thick Lizzy -

https://medium.com/tessas-web-log/liz-truss-a-perfect-example-of-stupidity-and-hubris-778500904201

We have Super Thick Donnie…