https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
More than a 15% drop from yesterday. July looks like the next possibility at 53% - but I would bet against that. I think it will also be below 50% by next week.
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Over the rest of the year even if the FF rate comes down the long end of the curve will rise assuming the tax cut is seriously approached and then passed.
June is down to 34.9%, not very likely
July is still 79.2%, somewhat likely
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Forecast dropped again.
July is now down to 62%.
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I think you have a misunderstanding about how to read the chart at fedwatch. Here’s the current look for July.
This chart is showing that (deriving a percentage using the arithmetic based on interest rate futures trading) the percent expecting 4.25-4.50% (no change) is 29.1%. The percent expecting 4.00-4.25% (down 1/4) is 60.1%. And the percent expecting 3.75-4.00% (down 1/2) is 10.7%.
So, the percent expecting an interest rate drop is 70.8% (60.1% expect a drop of 1/4 point, and 10.7% expect a drop of 1/2 a point). So July is at 70.8%.
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Not a misunderstanding, I just saw something completely different earlier today.
When I looked at it earlier today, the numbers were different. The current rate was 38.X%. 425 was at 52.X% and 400 was at 9.X% (which is how I got to 62% by adding the 52 and the 9%).
To my knowledge, it does not adjust during the day so I have no idea why there is such a discrepancy.
If it does adjust during the day, then that is wild that it would adjust that much from 3 hours ago - and I acknowledge it is different now than when I saw it.
I guess next time I need to grab a screen shot.
Edit: Google AI seems to think it adjusts intraday:
Yes, the CME FedWatch Tool does adjust throughout the day. The tool calculates probabilities of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcomes based on the real-time trading of 30-Day Federal Funds futures contracts. As these futures contracts are traded throughout the day, the FedWatch Tool continuously updates its calculations and displays the latest market-implied probabilities.
So, we are apparently both correct. Like I stated, next time I add a screen shot (though this tool just became a lot less useful if it moves that much intraday - I guess one should probably only view it aftermarket).
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