I’m not sure why many feel this thread is somehow a “hit piece” on Saul?
I consider myself one of Saul’s biggest supporters, this is my favorite, most frequented board, I read every post. I feel I’ve learned more here than on any other board (paid or free) on the Fool. I’m grateful and indebted to Saul for all he has shared. I’m invested in many “Saul stocks” that I think will be big winners down the road that I never would have gotten in without this board. I also have quite a few winners already that I’m in only because of this board (ABMD, BOFI, ESNT, LGIH, SBNY, SHOP, SWKS, UBNT). Obviously some others are down, but that comes with the investing territory.
But I do find the fact that the FDN practically mirrored Saul’s results for 10 YEARS fascinating! Especially when I realized they’re not the same stocks, but they gave very similar results. Tamhas said it is an “amusing correlation”, 10 years is more than an amusing correlation. You saying that, is saying there is nothing to it, it is random luck. To say that is like saying Saul’s 30 years of earning a CAGR of 25-30% was just dumb luck. A couple, 3, 4, maybe 5 years can be luck, but I think for it to happen for 10 years, that there is a correlation there that we just don’t recognize, something about the types of stocks even though they’re not the same stocks, yet they move in the same way in the market.
I’m not saying it’s a bad thing, I like it, as I’m considering putting much of what I have currently in cash in the FDN instead. I think it will continue to mirror Saul’s returns, which I think have been and will continue to be great. Even if they don’t look like it over a relatively randomly selected time frame of the last 10 years (how long the FDN has been around). There was no nefarious reason that time frame was selected by #6 (at least in my mind), that’s just all the FDN has been around.
I’ve never looked into it, but it seems to me that it would have been pretty hard to select 2 portfolios with completely different stocks and have them correlate as closely as these did. Maybe I’m wrong…maybe any growth stocks would correlate as closely as the earlier posted graphs showed FDN and SAUL stocks correlating. If that’s the case, then you can say there’s nothing to see here, and maybe macro effects have more to do with a portfolio’s returns than the individual stocks selected. I don’t believe that, though, they obviously have something to do with it, but I think the individual stocks picked have more to do with it, which is what makes the correlation interesting.
B&W asks why this post has gone on for so long. I like b&w’s posts, even though they’re usually about income stocks and REITS, but I don’t see a long thread as a problem, it usually means it’s an interesting thread. If you don’t like this thread, ignore it. There is nothing political about this thread. We’re talking about growth stocks, Saul stocks even, and why his returns have mirrored a growth internet stock ETF. B&W also states how hard it is to live off your investments and how he and Saul are the only 2 doing it here. I’ll give you that, I think that’s awesome and why I’m trying to learn all I can here, because I would like to do it to! I’m in my early 50’s and have had some success in investing, although I’ll be the first to admit, that my big payouts in the past were a lot of luck (and a lot of risk!). But that success has also put me in a position now, that I think in 5 years (once I get my youngest through college) that I’ll be able to retire and live off my investments, too. At least that’s the plan.
One thing I have noticed about this thread is, I don’t think Saul has made one comment on it. I suppose that means he either disapproves of it (I hope not), is insulted by it (I really hope not), or just doesn’t find it interesting or worthy of discussion. If that’s the case, Saul, please let us know and I’m happy to drop it. But I would like to hear your thoughts on why it looks like your portfolio returns of constantly changing individual stock picks has correlated so closely to the FDN. If you would care to share any thoughts you have, I’d find it most interesting.
If not, sorry for the waste of bandwidth on my part.