And for those worried that our overpriced stocks will get killed when the market drops, today is a wonderful example. Right now,
The Dow is down 2.39%
The Nas is down 1.66%
The S&P is down 2.04%
The Rus is down 2.29%
so they average down over 2.0% even with the Nasdaq included,
and my portfolio is down less than a quarter of a percent…
And ZM, which some were so worried about, is UP over four percent.
Saul
Although to be fair, just after the above data points, during the dot-com bust AMZN had a peak close of $106.69 on December 10th, 1999, and closed at $5.97(!) on September 28th, 2001.
If the same thing were to happen to ZM, it would undergo a precipitous decline from its closing high of $568.34 on October 19th, to a bottom of $31.80 on August 1st, 2022. Ouch.
The difference being that Zoom is actually making a profit.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4382186-approach-zooms-valu…
According to this carefully written article, Zoom will only be worthwhile holding in case it achieves truly a “dream scenario” of performance. Otherwise, even if being highly optimistic, Zoom should be valued no more than maybe 350$ a share, and that is 15 years into the future given high growth and excellent performance.
Zoom should be worth about 900$ in 15 years if it basically dethrones Microsoft and develops several other highly successful products.
Any oppinions on this piece?
According to this carefully written article, Zoom will only be worthwhile holding in case it achieves truly a “dream scenario” of performance. Otherwise, even if being highly optimistic, Zoom should be valued no more than maybe 350$ a share, and that is 15 years into the future given high growth and excellent performance.
Zoom should be worth about 900$ in 15 years if it basically dethrones Microsoft and develops several other highly successful products.
Any oppinions on this piece?
I clicked on the article. I browsed through it, digesting all his points. I noted that the basis of his argument was on the present fair value of Zoom based on its profits in 10-15 years time. I clicked on the author’s profile. I noted: “My investing style is longterm and based in value investing and fundamentals”. I observed his previously posted articles, and that one of his most recent articles was titled ‘BT Group: an Oasis of Value’. I clicked on the exit button of my browser, and went back to reading about the football.
In all seriousness, you will drive yourself mad reading value investors pick apart valuations of growth stocks, particularly Zoom. I noticed many similar articles myself when the stock was priced about $150. You can invest in old stagnant companies who are struggling to grow and whose share price has declined 80% over the past 5 years and therefore represents ‘good value’, or you can invest in hyper growth companies whose share price is up +637% YTD and is therefore ‘overvalued’. I know who my money is on. Try to shut out the noise and focus on your own strategy 
RevTK, I suggest you read post 72752. Saul has gone over this.
RDF.
The trouble with “Value” is that it is usually an isolated concept When in fact value is primarily tied to what are the other possible uses of the investment money. If bonds yield next to nothing the value of most stocks goes up. Then there is the psychological factor, a glass of water has a lot more value when you are thirsty than when you aren’t thirsty. So likely “Value” has different desirability in different markets. Also important is cost of capital, and most value companies have to pay a lot for it. Compared to software companies or Tesla. The stats used to pick “Value” come from SEC documents,and are readily available to all, as are the techniques used to determine the less expensive ones. No edge here.
The SP500 turns over faster and faster, corporate lifetimes are shorter,and unless it is a company like Coca Cola it is hard to be sure it will still be here and be profitable in 5 years , much less in 10 or 15 years
Every strategy has its time and place,and Value seems to work best near the end of a bear market. But other strategies work well at that time too,.