Zoom ZM

Zoom is reporting next week.

Saul, I read your rational to get in ZM. In this uneasy market, ZM could be pull down big on any ‘not so good’ news, or on ‘concerns of valuation’. We never can predict what the stock will do in this market.
OKTA jumped up after earnings while ZS dropped by a few %. Worst ZUO fell off a cliff >30%. Regardless how we play it, I don’t think anyone wants to experience that kind of drop.

In the case of ZS, I do think it will recover if the market let it.

Are you really holding ZM through the earnings? are you expecting them to beat and raise?


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This got long, my summary is that in a concentrated portfolio being on top of earnings and calls is a must have to managing your money. I personally use beats and raises as drivers to add in AH or the next day depending on the situation. I use misses or disappointments to inform selling and trimming, but rarely do so with the same urgency as building a position.

Full Body

I won’t speak for Saul, but I will speak to a habit I’ve formed thanks to my time spent moving from mutual funds to my now concentrated portfolio as it relates to earnings and plans around them. I share because I learned this from here.

I track my stocks and the guided numbers, particularly on growth for the quarter and the year.

As soon as earnings are released, I put those numbers in the quarter and I make a mental note on how big of beat it was or wasn’t.

I then look at the guide compared to the previous guide.

If the numbers and guides are in line with what I expected, I am at a minimum holding and at a maximum adding.

What I do is dependent on my conviction in the company and its position in my portfolio.

For instance, I’ve built my TWLO (+60% weighted return) and TTD (+65% weighted return) buying on beat and raises to move them from 3% initial positions to 15% and 11% positions respectfully. I also built out my EVBG position based on solid earnings reports that keep proving the expand strategy out.

I’ve also used earning reports to trim or exit positions, but this normally requires me to listen to the conference call and understand the why. I just have to know if my conviction has changed and the story has changed. If it has, I may hold it a little bit until I decide where I’m moving money to (NTNX) because I’m generally to quote David Gardner (stocks fall faster than they rise), so you see bottom pretty quickly. But my decision is made to sell.

You’ll notice something critical about both decisions, listening to earnings calls and being on top of reports is really important in a concentrated portfolio.

I too share some timidness around valuation. However certain factors (accelerating growth and/superior growth rates) often can help alleviate my timidness.

I never try to game earnings reports or the markets reactions. I generally want to own the best companies for my money, and earnings are my quarterly peak to validate that I still feel I have the best portfolio for me and my investing profile.

Just a Fool


Are you really holding ZM through the earnings? are you expecting them to beat and raise?

tj, you must be kidding. Of course I’m “really” holding ZM through the earnings. I don’t think I’ve ever sold out of a company “before earnings” in my life. I take positions in companies to hold indefinitely, until the story changes. Nothing has changed yet for Zoom.

Am I expecting a beat and raise? Of course I’m expecting a beat and raise! Can you remember when one of our SaaS companies hasn’t beat its estimates, even once? I can’t. I don’t know what Zoom estimated (if they did) because I don’t pay attention to estimates unless they are accompanied by all sorts of apologies (like Nutanix, for instance), but I just “googled revenue estimates for ZM” to help me answer your question, and I got $111.66 million as the consensus.

Now the last three quarters they rose sequentially by $15 million, $15 million, and $16 million (From $60 to $75 to $90 to $106 million). Do you think they’ll beat $111 million? It’s laughable. If you add another $16 million on the last quarter’s $106 million you get $122 million (up 103%). That beats the estimate by $11 million! If you give them a little nudge because of all the amazing publicity their IPO got (and imagine people reading about them and saying to themselves “Growing over 115%. They must be the best and have something special. I think I’ll try them.”) and say that was worth an extra 2% revenue, up to $124 million, and we are looking at up 107%. (On the other hand, we don’t know whether there is seasonality with the first quarter, so I’ll be happy with the $122 million, or even a little less). Yes, I expect a beat and raise!



Looks like your revenue estimate was right on Saul @ $122 million = 11 million beat and ZM is currently up 10% after hours in response.

Thanks for your post on expecting this beat. Because of this post I added with confidence after reading it!

Best to all on this board and my gratitude to Saul and all who are so unselfish with their time and expertise!