Great point. In the past, the richest Americans haven’t felt the same negative consumer sentiment as those beneath them. This time around is different. Due to all the uncertainty that is swirling about us, even people named Winston and Prudence are getting uneasy.
https://www.axios.com/2025/05/19/tariffs-consumer-economy-sentiment
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index leaped to 98.0, a 12.3-point increase from April and much better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 86.0.
DB2
Going up to the right is good. Let’s dig deeper.
“The Expectations Index —based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—surged 17.4 points to 72.8, but remained below the threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead.”
There’s also a discrepancy in behaviors based on household income.
With the whipsaw nature of our current conditions, it’s very difficult to determine what the outlook is next week, let alone 6 months from now.
Some thread necromancy here:
Consumer Sentiment just hit a new ATL (all-time low).
The war in Iran is the tail that wags the dog so I DO NOT necessarily see this as a strong buy signal. We could be even lower next month if this “pause” does not become a real cease fire.
Also:
The S&P 500 surged nearly 39% on a total-return basis from the April 2025 low through the end of that year.
