** Americans continue to sour on the US economic outlook as uncertainty around President Trump’s policies and higher prices weigh on consumer sentiment.**
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I bought some Vanguard Industrials ETF [VIS] last week. Stuff will still need to be made and transported regardless of who sits in the Oval Office.
If the ETF price declines I will view it as a buying opportunity.
USA! USA!
If government policies and the natural economic cycle push the economy into a recession the Industrial sector will decline. That’s why Industrial stocks are called “cyclical” as opposed to Consumer Staples (such as food) which don’t usually decline as much because people have to eat.
Wendy
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Best contrarian indicator. The plunge is as severe as COVID. The economic conditions do not have the uncertainty and headwinds of COVID.
If you believe that then I wish your portfolio luck. The world is on the cusp of a once-in-five generations war of tariffs between the US and almost every other large trading block across the world.
We (and I use the term loosely, because “I” certainly didn’t do it) have antagonized our two largest trading partners, Mexico and Canada, and boycotts of American products are already being organized or are in effect.
Tariffs have the inevitable effect of raising prices and reducing choice, so the long term effects will be felt only some months down the road, but there is no way it can not be negative - at least in the short term. The long term positives (job creation), if they ever come true are almost always costly and illusory.
As the US economy has an all time low percentage of manufacturing and is now heavily reliant on the service sector, it behooves us to look how that is - and will be affected. Reports in the WSJ and NYT have demonstrated an immediate effect on tourism to the country which will affect tens of billions of dollars in spending - and generally highly-taxed spending at that.
Should the economy falter even a little, it will be subject to the reverse-wealth effect, that is: people spend more freely when things seem good - and the reverse is also true. That’s often how recessions begin, as people pull in.
Not to mention tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of government workers being disgorged all at once into what is described as “a bad job market”.
None of this signals that you should panic, but it is a far cry from “economic conditions to not have the uncertainty” theory that you propose.
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Please re-read what I posted. See below chart how democrats suddenly feel about the economy!!! Perhaps, may be, you are suffering from democrat-stock-market-deranged syndrome??
What Trump says, and what he does are different. Already, he is walking back on the tariff’s, including reciprocal tariff. He went quiet on Mexico, and China bashing.
Lastly, we don’t know what economy and the stock market is going to do, that goes both ways. Stay nimble. If you are concerned take some off the table.
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The number of likes should tell you, most likely your take is popular and not necessarily a correct one. Just saying 
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Stagflation went on FAR LONGER than Covid… Remember?
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You need to read everything that makes up the chart that you posted. Perhaps your are suffering from Stockholm syndrome?
**Consumer sentiment slid another 11% this month, with declines seen consistently across all groups by age, education, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions. Sentiment has now fallen for three consecutive months and is currently down 22% from December 2024. Republicans posted a sizable 10% decline in their expectations index in March. **
The lowest since 2022 dropping 6.8%, hang on.
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Yes, indeed. The checks must have cleared. Does anyone really believe his is concerned about Proles?
“I’ll probably be more lenient than reciprocal, because if I was reciprocal, that would be very tough for people,” Trump said in an interview.
Steve
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There were policy missteps by the administration and Fed caused it. Is there a potential for that, sure. DOGE could go overboard, Treasury secretary is talking about changing the structure of Government debt and can cause serious disruption to the money markets, tariff could go overboard, etc.
For now, inflation is falling like rock. The inflation’s primary drivers are egg prices (not kidding) and used car prices. Both are coming down.
I can’t keep up, are tariffs back on ?? April 2nd, Trump calls it Liberation Day. He’ll liberate more money from our pockets into the government coffers, without calling it a tax hike. Yup, what a genius.
So tariffs, hyper levels of job uncertainty in the government sector, is agricultural sector going to have huge issues at getting hands in the fields/leading to higher food prices, staggering displays of incompetence by Trump admin with regards to national security, etc etc etc.
I’m shocked Americans are pulling back their spending, just shocked,lol
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In related news:
Democrat James Malone is projected to win a special election for Pennsylvania’s 36th state Senate district on Tuesday night, narrowly triumphing in a district President Donald Trump won by 15 percentage points in November.
My plan is to stay mostly in cash and non-US until at least that day.
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The president will be keeping an eye on the stock market. He has zero interest in blowing it up.
There was a bit of talk on the board in 2016 of some folks getting out of the stock market. If they did they lost ground as the stock market had 3 up years during the first term.
The same 3 years occurred with the previous president. I try to not let political “feelings” influence my investing.
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I don’t think so. The “dollar store indicator” (small “d”) indicates that rurals are having an increasingly hard time.
Our customers continue to report that their financial situation has worsened over the last year as they have been negatively impacted by ongoing inflation,” Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos said on an earnings call Thursday. “Many of our customers report they only have enough money for basic essentials, with some noting that they have had to sacrifice even on the necessities.”
Many companies are noting a consumer slowdown across income levels because of inflation, tariffs and a wobbly stock market.
Uncertainty is nobody’s friend. Back to the DSI, about 40% of what is stocked on their shelves is produced outside the US. I would guess a similar, perhaps higher percent for WalMart, Target, etc. Certainly those prices are going to rise, so the idea that “inflation is falling” is barely true now (that’s mostly during the past administration) and is certainly not true looking forward.
[quote="Kingran, post:7, topic:114925"] The number of likes should tell you, most likely your take is popular and not necessarily a correct one. Just saying [/quote]
“Likes” are not a measure of accuracy, never have been. They can be, however, a measure of sentiment. In that way they can be a measure of expectation, which can drive some outcomes in economics, an often self fulfilling science world in which we all live.
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I also couldn’t care less about the party in power.
What I do care about is uncertainty - especially the uncertainty caused by flippant and punitive tariffs. Clearly, a 10% correction is not enough to get the current POTUS to change course.
Hawkwin
Who will note that he stayed fully invested up through and after every single POTUS election since he has been investing.
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So once you get out you have to stay out? Some people were out and then rode it back up.
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I retired in 2018. Had Sequence of Returns Risk imprinted on my brain, plus I personally thought Trump was a clown as far as being a leader and businessman. So I was heavy in “cash” when covid hit. The GFC had also left an impression in my mind of how the government would react to a crisis that hit their valued constituents ( ie the very wealthy ). So I moved cash into stocks and did really well. Kind of funny, had a close friend who I talk investing with, and at the time he told me he was worried about my mental state of mind, lol, that I had to be nuts to be moving money into stocks. Told him I appreciated his concern, but the odds were very high that some type of bailout was coming. So I won that round.
The current situation feels very different to me. We have an insane clown posse calling the shots. They are almost certain to bail out their valued constituents ( ie the wealthy ) if/when things careen downward. But I don’t see them providing stimulus to the masses, which occurred covid.
I will move money back into stocks, I know better than to think that inflation is not a huge problem for retirees. But I have to see some sanity before I go back in. As well as see how the financial numbers look when companies are reporting in the next couple of quarters.
Who knows, maybe the age of tariffs in America will truly be another Gilded Age in American History. But to be honest, the 1st Gilded Age didn’t sound so great to me ( unless you were a robber baron )
" The Gilded Age, a term coined by Mark Twain, refers to the period in American history roughly from the 1870s to the early 1900s, characterized by rapid industrialization, economic growth, and significant social and political changes, often masked by a façade of prosperity, but also marked by stark inequality and corruption"
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Rural economy driven by agriculture, manufacturing, and mining have steadily lost jobs and have lesser impact on overall US economic health is a sad fact, but a true one. Technology and AI direct and indirect investments have a much bigger impact on US economy. Any slowdown there could cause issues. China is attacking this directly from technology innovation and from indirectly like talking about AI investments are not producing necessary returns.
I would focus on tech, and AI investments over rural.
Yes, from M&A’s to business investments, everyone is on pause to understand how the tariff is going to look. “Tariff man” is going to have his “Liberation Day” and we will move on. While people say they don’t like uncertainty, it took me a long time to understand, the cost of certainty is far higher than the cost of uncertainty. I would recommend a reading of anti-fragile.
At the end of the day you should be comfortable with your investment positions, size and posture.
Good luck.
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Studies shows people once they get out, are very reluctant to get back in. A wonderful study by Schwab.