Bond yields have been rising fast. Since bond prices move opposite to their yields, the prices have dropped sharply. Hence a bond rout.
Recharged Bond Rout Unnerves Investors
A sharp rebound in U.S. Treasury yields is reviving old concerns on Wall Street
By
Sam Goldfarb, The Wall Street Journal, July 9, 2023
A run of strong economic data has rekindled the bond rout that rattled markets and the banking system for much of the last 18 months. [Bond yields are rising.]…
Behind the climb: the unwinding of bets that the Federal Reserve’s interest-fighting campaign would rapidly cool inflation, or even precipitate a recession. Last week’s readings on a still-tight labor market heightened worries that the Fed would have to raise rates to a higher level than previously expected, and then keep them there for longer…
Rising yields could slow investment broadly by increasing borrowing costs, while also threatening the recent resurgence in stocks by increasing the appeal of bonds as a safe alternative… [end quote]
The increase in bond yields may threaten the stock market’s resurgence but the stock market is still in a rising trend. The Fear & Greed Index is in extreme greed. The trade is risk-on.
There’s no sign of recession even though the yield curve is still strongly inverted. The Fed will almost certainly raise the fed funds rate in July and may again later this year. The markets see almost no likelihood of the fed funds rate falling below 5% in 2023.
The METAR is a short-term forecast, good for only one week. I agree with you that the stock market will reverse later, but the Control Panel doesn’t say it will be next week.
@WendyBG I get it is almost no notice but I see it as now that the reversal happens.
Could be wrong but things are looking very shaky. Those hammers on the two charts could be hellish.
Separately Eth has an upside at some point soon of possibly $300
BTC’s upside could be $10k in a relatively short time period. The Eth and BTC speculation are just wild opinions not meant for usage or trading by anyone.
Keeping it simple and vague because no one should be trading on this sort of stuff, the candles look shaky. The trend is very bullish. When candles go sideways things can fail. Sideways is not a great pattern for a bull market. That depends on if the candles look minor with minor volume v a strong statement to the upside. This looks like kind of scrimping around weakly since last week. The actual statement with those hammers end of last week were telling of a market sort of changing its opinion…a total guess as far as value goes…on my part.
Very little faith in it. But if you are trying to trade on that there is nothing there in your strategy. You need to really come up with a better way of investing. I get you have more money that most that is earned income.
LOLOLOL
I woulda said “suggests consolidation”.
The previous 3 month uptrend needed a “break” to let the fundamentals catch up.
RSI dropped from oversold to below the 70.
Bollinger Bands are mimicking the RSI.
Both, IMO, slightly bullish.
The MACD is a worry - the fast stochastic crossed DOWN below the slow stochastic about 3 weeks ago.
This is bearish.
The 50sma is above the 200, and both are uptrending. Which is bullish.
Volume is more or less “average”.
Highs are slightly lower?
Lows are uptrending?
Summary: I’m gonna go with slightly bullish.
This is NOT investing or trading advice. Do your own DD. My comments are for entertainment purposes only.
I have no idea which way the market will go, especially in the short term.
Long term (>10 years), histerically, the trend is up.
YMMV.
