I was also trying to compare what was posted versus what the Fed said (Fed's estimate of current, forward inflation < 4.5%, roughly - #10 by mostlylong). Here’s what I found.
A METAR posted:
I interpreted the METAR post as:
The Fed will monitor PCE inflation to check if it is near 2% for several months and then the Fed may adjust policy based on this.
The Fed or Powell said:
p. 5 “…we’ll need to bring our funds rate to a restrictive level and to keep it there for some time.”
p. 5 “ultimately we’ll want to see clear evidence that inflation is moving back down to 2 percent.”
p. 5 “In terms of reducing rates, I think we’d want to be very confident that inflation is moving back down to 2 percent before we would consider that.”
I see nothing so specific on level and timing as around 2% for several months. The Fed seems more focused on the trend towards 2% and they won’t commit to any time schedule.
A METAR posted:
I interpreted the METAR post as:
Not sure what this sentence is trying to say, something about the Fed and estimates of forward inflation rate.
The Fed or Powell said:
Powell uses the word forward several times in the context of forward real rates, but I’m not sure how to line those comments up with the post above.
A METAR posted:
I (and I believe luxmain also) interpreted the METAR post as:
The Fed will increase the Fed funds rate until PCE inflation is 2%.
The Fed or Powell said:
p. 5 “…we’ll need to bring our funds rate to a restrictive level and to keep it there for some time.”
p. 5 “ultimately we’ll want to see clear evidence that inflation is moving back down to 2 percent.”
p. 5 “In terms of reducing rates, I think we’d want to be very confident that inflation is moving back down to 2 percent before we would consider that.”
I see nothing saying the Fed will keep increasing rates, or tighten, until PCE inflation is 2%.
Maybe I am just being very particular in parsing words and other METARs are more casual.
Fed Press Conference Transcript