The news cycle this week was pretty exciting, including a war between Israel and Iran, the crash of a Boeing airliner, a military parade and planned “No Kings” demonstrations (which obviously took place while the markets were closed).
For the most part, the markets took this in stride. Stocks and bonds moved a little but basically noise.
The Treasury yield curve was stable. VIX rose a little but was still low. The trade was neutral (neither risk-on nor risk-off). The Fear & Greed Index was in Greed but close to neutral.
Oil rose but was still within its long-term falling price channel. Natgas hardly moved. Gold rose to its recent peak. USD fell to the lowest point in a year.
CPI-U rose only 0.1% MOM but YOY is still above the Fed’s target. The impact of the tariffs is still in the future.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 was 3.8 percent on June 9. That is a strong forecast and way ahead of consensus.
Congress is still debating the federal budget so I won’t say anything about that – it’s political and banned from METAR until it’s passed and signed into law.
The METAR for next week is sunny.
Wendy