Control Panel: Predictions for 2023

Wendy,

That was never the objective.

The objective is a balance between fiscal policy that does not over tax the top brackets and corporations during an inflationary longer term period and monetary policy. By this I mean the background threat is now inflation. The FED’s position is different than in the 1950s this time around. This time the FED is raising rates to hold off inflation unlike the 50s. Taxes in the 50s were used to hold off inflation.

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Much greater revenue growth and collections happen long before inflation is cut off by still higher taxes. That is why the FED is raising rates.

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I wish people quoting Mish would look deeper into what he is saying. He does not know much.

The issue with full time jobs is the history of a lot of part time workers with multiple jobs. Those folks have taken a lot of full time jobs. That is why there are help wanted signs everywhere.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/12/08/full-time-and-part-time-employment-a-deeper-look

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Here is a visualization of the trend in the 21st century, with the percentage of full-time employed on the left axis and the part-time employed on the right. We see a conspicuous crossover during the Great Recession. Since early 2016, the two cohorts have slowly drifted apart, with full-time employment gaining.

Interestingly, this trend has continued, even during the COVID-19 global pandemic and recession. As of October 2022, Full-time employment made up 83.4% of all employment.

adding my comment there are plenty of more full time jobs available but not a lot more people who want full time hours.

Also it is doubtful the economy is beginning to contract. Inflation is well down.

US paper selling off and over valuations of bonds and equities in the market places are the story.

Struck me…1981 to 2020 the FED’s job was to add to the money supply. 2021…the FED’s job is to steady the money supply and keep interest rates maintaining inflation at 2% roughly. Inflation is a constant pressure on rates to go higher. Do not expect rates to drop much if at all during this next five years. Covid is a crazy one off that now can be ignored for econ purposes. Although economics will be impacted by the medical costs of Covid till the ends of our lives and beyond.

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