This is huge. But it might not be over yet. The SEC can still appeal.
** When the Securities and Exchange Commission denied Grayscale its petition for a Bitcoin ETF, that action was “arbitrary and capricious,” an appeals court ruled today. The SEC ruling has been vacated.**
Thus making the courts the expensive battlegrounds for the losers.
According to Grayscale, each share of GBTC has .00090089 Bitcoin per share.
Each share is currently $20.56, meaning it’s valuing BTC at $22,821. But BTC is actually $27,660. Meaning that GBTC is currently trading at 83% of NAV.
Do I have my numbers right?
I believe so. So as an arbitrage it is not as compelling as it was before today. But the true price is around $25.50 or there about. But if they are able to make an etf then that should drive Bitcoin higher. It is around a 19.6 percent return give or take.
So the risk is they don’t get to convert to an ETF after all. In which case GBTC could fall back.
Or that it drags out for years, but there is also what bitcoin does that makes the juice and the risk more unknowable.