Oil is overpriced.
I can believe that. What would be your base/not-overpriced level for oil – $90, $80, $60?
DB2
DB2,
Setting up a target in a free market makes little sense. I get having a concrete point of reference would seem to allow people to sleep better, but it is not a reality of a free market.
I just know when there is a premium that wont last.
The top level of froth is off the market. The equities around that will predict another level of froth will drop out of the market. Meaning the premiums will be dropping out.
I will add a disclaimer, I think it is low level risk oddly enough, but if another news event comes along the analysis will be wrong. The problem is betting on nothing as of now is not a good bet.