The new price of Russian crude

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
1

This is what I expected price and all. Russia has zero power to decide the price of its commodities. The EU will stare Russia down over NG as well. The Kremlin needs the income. OPEC will be up against it. The Western Cartel working with India and China will undermine OPEC next. Any promise of less expensive oil will never be refused by India and China or anyone else. OPEC will slip and slide all day long looking for pricing power.

snippet

The European Union on Friday once again failed to reach an agreement on a price cap for Russian oil, with the bloc’s eastern-most members including Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania objecting that the proposed $60-$70 per barrel for Russian crude is too generous and well above the rates Russia currently sells crude.

Well, they are right: offering $70 per barrel for Russian Urals is incredibly generous, considering that Bloomberg has just reported that China and India are currently getting them for half that price.

(correction, I ran to post this. My target was $60 $70. India and China are paying more like $34. I got giddy :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:)

2

Note the confluence of events, the USD is depreciating. In the US markets crude is rising.

As the Japanese and perhaps the Europeans sell their US paper the selling can and probably will spiral out of control. To sell the paper the long end of the yield curve will spike. That will suddenly appreciate the USD. Yes oil can spike downward.

The Japanese are thinking by the end of March 2023 those who are selling US paper in their insurance industry will have done so. The pace of selling really should pick up. Both the JPY and EUR are strongly appreciating…and are the trade…