CrowdStrike - my take on earnings

My take on Crowdstrike:

Let’s start off with revenue. It was $108 million, up from $56 million yoy, and up 94% from $96 million sequentially. If you just look at those numbers in isolation they look fantastic, but I have to admit I was expecting considerably more. The last four quarters they had grown by $9, $10, $14, and $16 million sequentially, so growing by only $12 million was a disappointment.

Then we’ll look at subscription revenue. That was up 98% yoy made up roughly 91% of total revenue. Can’t complain about that.

And their ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) is $424 million, up from $208 million a year ago, and from $90 million two years ago. That’s pretty zowie!

But how to reconcile the “paltry” $12 million in sequential total revenue growth with the huge, accelerating customer growth? I’m not kidding about huge. January fiscal year-end customers in 2016 thru 2019 were


 **165**
 **450**
**1242**
**2516**

Just look at that stack for a minute. Well the last two quarters they grew by 543 and 730 (equal to the number that they grew all last year), and they now have 3789. And they say that they are focusing on larger customers, and those customers are asking for longer contracts.

Let’s see if that makes sense. Longer contracts mean more dollars that they have signed up but can’t recognize yet, so that helps us to understand. Also, they have a land and expand sales plan so those 730 new customers will increase their spend in the future.

Okay, Gross margin! Was 36%, 54%, and 65% of total revenue for the past three years. This quarter it was 71%, and subscription gross margin was 74%, up from 70% yoy.

Adjusted net profit margin was -173%, -114%, and -56% the last three fiscal years, and this quarter it was -21%. That gives an idea where it is going.

Dollar based net retention rate was “over 120%” for the umpteenth consecutive quarter.

Op Cash Flow was neg $6 million, improved from neg $29 million a year ago.

Free cash flow was neg $29 million, improved from neg $36 a yr ago.

Cash was $827 million.

That gives you a thumbnail sketch.

They introduced CrowdScore, which leverages cloud-based AI to enable executives to instantly see the real-time threat level their organizations are facing, so they can quickly mobilize resources to respond.

Now here are some quotes and paraphrases from the conference call:

Year-over-year we achieved 104% ARR growth, 98% subscription revenue growth and 94% total revenue growth which was above the high end of our guidance. We also continued to expand our subscription gross margin and operating leverage.
CrowdStrike stops breaches and we are transforming endpoint security. Our clear technology differentiation is driving our growth which continues to significantly outpace the industry. In addition to stopping breaches, we help customers simplify their security stack with our single agent architecture and cloud modules. This sets us apart from others in the security industry.

To measure our success executing on our platform strategy, we look at the percentage of all subscription customers that have adopted four or more cloud modules. This percentage rapidly grew to 30% by the end of fiscal 2018 and then to 47% by the end of fiscal 2019. I’m pleased to announce that in Q2 we reached a new milestone with 50% of our subscription customers having adopted four or more cloud modules. The strength of CrowdStrike’s Falcon platform is also rapidly gaining industry recognition.

Gartner also cited our extensible platform and a CrowdStrike Store, the first and only unified security cloud ecosystem of trusted third-party applications. To help foster innovation within the CrowdStrike store ecosystem, we have established the Falcon Fund in partnership with Accel. CrowdStrike Falcon’s cloud-native open API architecture was built to provide a shared security ecosystem where developers and partners could dramatically shape the future of security in IT operations.

Through the CrowdStrike Store third-party applications can be developed utilizing the massive amounts of endpoint data that our lightweight agent already collects. The falcon Fund will invest in the next generation of innovators or leveraging the falcon platform to solve the most pressing security and IT challenges.

Through the CrowdStrike store third-party applications can be developed utilizing the massive amounts of endpoint data that our lightweight agent already collects. The falcon Fund will invest in the next generation of innovators or leveraging the falcon platform to solve the most pressing security and IT challenges.

I’d like to discuss our view of the consolidation in the endpoint security market that has occurred over the past few quarters. We have seen three of the larger NexGen endpoint players and the largest legacy endpoint security company decide to sell their business. These companies either originated as on-premise solutions or had an on-premise version and were unable to successfully transition to a true cloud-native architecture without an on-premise version.

Furthermore, we view this consolidation as a strong net positive for our business and validates that cloud-native is hard and costly unless done from inception. CrowdStrike was cloud native from day one and we enjoy first move advantage in cloud delivered endpoint protection. We have the architecture that others strive to emulate and we possess unique technology that allows us to operate effectively at scale.
We believe these transactions reflect the growing distance CrowdStrike is putting between ourselves and competitors in terms of both commercial traction and our data moat which provides us with a long-term competitive advantage. Again, this is reflected in our position in the Gartner Magic Quadrant versus all other fossilized and NexGen players.

74% of second quarter revenue was derived from customers in the U.S. and 26% was from international markets. Our rapidly growing international business highlights the global nature of the security industry, the massive market opportunity in front of us, and our continued success penetrating these markets

As you know, we entered into a partnership with Dell and SecureWorks earlier this year. We were chosen by Dell and SecureWorks over the competition in order to advance the industry’s most secure commercial PC by offering leading endpoint protection technology from CrowdStrike.

We’re seeing strong demand and a great partnership from AWS…. There’s a couple of areas that I focused on in my prepared remarks. Number one is AWS, we’re seeing a tremendous amount of momentum as customers are looking to protect those cloud workloads.

We’ve talked probably at length on sort of the core modules that we go to market with. But if you look at things like Spotlight, I can tell you, Windows OS vulnerabilities as an example, is a huge pain point for customers that are out there. There’s compliance issues, there are hygiene issues, and we’ve seen a tremendous increase in Spotlight.

And why are we seeing that? Well, it just works. It’s a scandalous technology, companies don’t want other agents on their system, if they have a scalable agent, which is going to deliver real time vulnerability information. That’s what they’re looking for. And the ability to actually have a customer try it with their own data, with our frictionless in app trial, I think has been a big boon to us. So we’re seeing a lot of activity there.

If you look at our threat intelligence modules, our Falcon X, the ability to automate a triage process and take something that would normally take eight hours and reduce that time to five minutes with our Sandbox technology, and our malware search capabilities and our integrated intelligence, these have been very, very well received. And again a tremendous - we’ve seen tremendous adoption in those areas.

So the feedback has universally been customers actually accelerating moving to CrowdStrike from our competitors as they try to transition from an on-premise solution which has been slow and cumbersome. We met with one customer that had almost 40 different controllers and one person just to manage their on-premise implementation.

And as other competitors try to accelerate their move to the cloud it actually just creates another buying opportunity for CrowdStrike. If they are going to look at a cloud vendor they might as well look at the best out there. So we like that dynamic. We view all these acquisitions as a net positive for us and we’re excited. So that’s a little bit about your first part of the question.

Q - But it would be really great to hear from you guys in terms of where and when you actually do see Palo Alto and how they stack up?

A - Well, we don’t see much of them to be candid, and if you look at the Gartner Magic Quadrant rather than me saying where they stack up, you can tell where the analysts think they stack up. Right? And it’s not even close to us. So I’ll the reader be the judge of that.

Okay, so what did I do? I added about 33% to my small Crowdstrike position, most at about $76, but about a third at about $80.50 on the way down. But please don’t just follow me. Decide for yourself. This could have been read either way, and I can be wrong and still only have a small position. I make mistakes I can assure you.

Best,

Saul

96 Likes

Let’s start off with revenue. It was $108 million, up from $56 million yoy, and up 94% from $96 million sequentially.

Bad punctuation:

Let’s start off with revenue. It was $108 million, up up 94% from $56 million yoy, and up from $96 million sequentially.

5 Likes

I realized that I should have included a little more discussion of my thinking about Crowd in my initial write-up.

First of all, just logically, it seems evident that no one else can do what they do as well as they do it, or they wouldn’t be roughly doubling their revenue each year, and doubling their number of customers each year. That, in itself, tells a lot of the story.

And then, when you read the conference call comments paraphrased below, you understand why this is happening. The legacy players can’t compete by going native cloud without abandoning their cash cow hardware businesses.

I’d like to discuss our view of the consolidation in the endpoint security market that has occurred over the past few quarters. We have seen three of the larger NexGen endpoint players and the largest legacy endpoint security company decide to sell their business. These companies either originated as on-premise solutions or had an on-premise version and were unable to successfully transition to a true cloud-native architecture without an on-premise version.

Furthermore, we view this consolidation as a strong net positive for our business and validates that cloud-native is hard and costly unless done from inception. CrowdStrike was cloud native from day one and we enjoy first mover advantage in cloud delivered endpoint protection. We have the architecture that others strive to emulate and we possess unique technology that allows us to operate effectively at scale.

We believe these transactions reflect the growing distance we are putting between ourselves and competitors in terms of both commercial traction and our data moat, which provides us with a long-term competitive advantage. Again, this is reflected in our position in the Gartner Magic Quadrant versus all other fossilized and NexGen players…

The total self-confidence, and even arrogance of that, gives the impression of a company that is sure of itself and not having any trouble with competition or in making sales.

This next excerpt I think is very pertinent to the Zscaler discussion in a recent thread on the board, as well as pertinent to Crowdstrike.

Q - Where and when do you actually see Palo Alto and how they stack up?

A - Well, we don’t see much of them to be candid, and if you look at the Gartner Magic Quadrant, rather than me saying where they stack up, you can tell where the analysts think they stack up. Right? And it’s not even close to us. So I’ll let the reader be the judge of that.

So, anyway, I felt that a company which is blasting through its competitors, more than doubling its number of customers each year, rapidly improving its margins and net profit as a percent of revenue, and is currently well off its highs even after a quarter in which they beat consensus estimates and gave the kind of aggressively euphoric conference call you read above, and in which every analyst congratulated them on their great results, was worth a small position, at least, in my portfolio.

Best,

Saul

44 Likes

I have to admit I’ve been hesitant with CRWD due to its extreme valuation. Same with Zoom.

Not because of the company or what they’re doing.

The CRWD comments are extremely bullish about their business and product. I’d say borderline arrogant except it’s not really arrogant to so bluntly state such provable facts.

Zoom as well. They kicked butt again too. With big wins all around including with the new Zoom phone.

Now that both companies have proved the performance has longevity and the prices have come down a good bit, it might be time to start creeping in on both. I’m not sure which one I like better, probably Zoom. But that’d be in the hair splitting club.

Darth

9 Likes

…But how to reconcile the “paltry” $12 million in sequential total revenue growth with the huge, accelerating customer growth? I’m not kidding about huge. January fiscal year-end customers in 2016 thru 2019 were

165
450
1242
2516

Just look at that stack for a minute. Well the last two quarters they grew by 543 and 730 (equal to the number that they grew all last year), and they now have 3789. And they say that they are focusing on larger customers, and those customers are asking for longer contracts…

Saul,
I find these posts so valuable because you not only tell us what you are thinking, but also how you got there. But spelling things out like you do, I can play along. And whether I own the stock or not (I don’t) I learn in the process. It has been said many times that this board is for experience investors. I think that posts like this prove that it is also a great place for less experienced investors to learn.

Thanks and take care.

Jeb
Explorer Supernaut
You can see all my holdings here: https://discussion.fool.com/profile/TMFJebbo/info.aspx

34 Likes
First, thanks to Saul and the rest of the board for creating such an invaluable place to learn and grow as investors.  

I'd like to point out how CRWD has been consistently improving on their efficiency in customer acquisition cost (CAC), which they refer to as the Magic Number.  Their definition of the Magic Number: 

Magic Number is calculated by performing the following calculation for the most recent four quarters and taking the average: annualizing the difference between a quarter’s Subscription Revenue and the prior quarter’s Subscription Revenue, and then dividing the resulting number by the previous quarter’s Non-GAAP Sales & Marketing Expense. Magic Number = Average of previous four quarters: 

((Quarter Subscription Revenue – Prior Quarter Subscription Revenue) x 4) / Prior Quarter Non-GAAP Sales & Marketing Expense.

They are calculating the annualized cost which correlates to the fact that subscriptions are renewed / contracted on an annual basis.  The basic formula for the CAC is:

([Gross Margin Q2 – Gross MarginQ1] × 4) / Sales and Marketing Expenses for period Q2

Using this formula, we see an improving trend in part of their OpEx efficiency: 

	     Magic Number
Q1 FY19	       0.85
Q2 FY19	       1.03
Q3 FY19	       0.85
Q4 FY19	       1.3
Q1 FY20	       1.06
Q2 FY20	       0.82

I believe that the Magic Number will continue to improve as customers continue to buy more modules.  We are seeing this trend in % QoQ module adoption/sales 16%, 26%, and 50%.  We are seeing more traction, and their business model in land-and-expand is shaping up nicely. 

As far as customer attraction is concerned, the discussion from the conference call was very interesting: 

Shaul Eyal

Thank you for taking my question, and congrats on the quarter and guidance gentlemen. Just one quick question, coming off from George's theme about the consolidation of the industry for legacy as well as Next-Gen antivirus solutions, has management team seen any increase in sales motion as well as win rate on the pipeline as a result of this consolidation that's going on?

George Kurtz

Yes, I mean if you look at some of the legacy players that are selling parts of their business, I think there's been a dramatic increase in acceleration. You have a lot of customers that were sort of on a natural cadence to look at a provider like CrowdStrike and I think it has accelerated and quite candidly, that’s a huge opportunity for us, as we say and that's a massive opportunity.
So, we're excited about that. It's actually accelerated them looking at other alternatives in particular, moving from their legacy on-premise architecture to something more contemporary, like CrowdStrike. And there's been many, many conversations we've had with large enterprise customers as they look to move away.

You know why their feelings? Obviously, they want something that's more contemporary and that really is focused on that simulation architecture, AI driven model. But I think, there's real concern that the investment will not be there in some of these other providers after they get bought. And it's going to be more managed to the bottom line as opposed to really driving innovation like we do at CrowdStrike.

Saul, you’ve already pointed out the accelerated growth in the customers, but if we measure in annualized terms, we have:

Customers	% Growth YoY
165	
450	            170
1242	            176
2516	            103

Crowdstrike has a total of 3,789 customers as reported in Q2FY19.  This in line with their trend in % Growth YoY at 51% mid-year.  

There are concerns that Blackberry and Cylance would become a threat.  A quick look at Cylance shows that the company was founded in 2012 and estimated FY18 total revenue was $130 M (Bloomberg).  Crowdstrike was founded in 2011 and had FY18 total revenue $250 M.  These results gives evidence in the gravitation of customers.  Is Cylance, therefore, a threat?  Does not appear so.  Forbes 2018 Cloud 100 ranks Crowdstrike #6 and Cylance #18 amongst all cloud sectors as judged by 34 cloud company CEO’s in revenue, sales growth, valuation and culture:

Forb’s 2018 Cloud 100: [https://www.forbes.com/cloud100/#70402e255f94](https://www.forbes.com/cloud100/#70402e255f94)

(I apologize if the formatting is difficult to read.)
7 Likes

First, thanks to Saul and the rest of the board for creating such an invaluable place to learn and grow as investors.

I’d like to point out how CRWD has been consistently improving on their efficiency in customer acquisition cost (CAC), which they refer to as the Magic Number. Their definition of the Magic Number:

Magic Number is calculated by performing the following calculation for the most recent four quarters and taking the average: annualizing the difference between a quarter’s Subscription Revenue and the prior quarter’s Subscription Revenue, and then dividing the resulting number by the previous quarter’s Non-GAAP Sales & Marketing Expense. Magic Number = Average of previous four quarters:

((Quarter Subscription Revenue – Prior Quarter Subscription Revenue) x 4) / Prior Quarter Non-GAAP Sales & Marketing Expense.

They are calculating the annualized cost which correlates to the fact that subscriptions are renewed / contracted on an annual basis. The basic formula for the CAC is:

([Gross Margin Q2 – Gross MarginQ1] × 4) / Sales and Marketing Expenses for period Q2

Using this formula, we see an improving trend in part of their OpEx efficiency:

Magic Number
Q1 FY19 0.85
Q2 FY19 1.03
Q3 FY19 0.85
Q4 FY19 1.3
Q1 FY20 1.06
Q2 FY20 0.82

I believe that the Magic Number will continue to improve as customers continue to buy more modules. We are seeing this trend in % QoQ module adoption/sales 16%, 26%, and 50%. We are seeing more traction, and their business model in land-and-expand is shaping up nicely.

As far as customer attraction is concerned, the discussion from the conference call was very interesting:

Shaul Eyal

Thank you for taking my question, and congrats on the quarter and guidance gentlemen. Just one quick question, coming off from George’s theme about the consolidation of the industry for legacy as well as Next-Gen antivirus solutions, has management team seen any increase in sales motion as well as win rate on the pipeline as a result of this consolidation that’s going on?

George Kurtz

Yes, I mean if you look at some of the legacy players that are selling parts of their business, I think there’s been a dramatic increase in acceleration. You have a lot of customers that were sort of on a natural cadence to look at a provider like CrowdStrike and I think it has accelerated and quite candidly, that’s a huge opportunity for us, as we say and that’s a massive opportunity.
So, we’re excited about that. It’s actually accelerated them looking at other alternatives in particular, moving from their legacy on-premise architecture to something more contemporary, like CrowdStrike. And there’s been many, many conversations we’ve had with large enterprise customers as they look to move away.

You know why their feelings? Obviously, they want something that’s more contemporary and that really is focused on that simulation architecture, AI driven model. But I think, there’s real concern that the investment will not be there in some of these other providers after they get bought. And it’s going to be more managed to the bottom line as opposed to really driving innovation like we do at CrowdStrike.

Saul, you’ve already pointed out the accelerated growth in the customers, but if we measure in annualized terms, we have:

% Growth YoY
170
176
103

Crowdstrike has a total of 3,789 customers as reported in Q2FY19. This in line with their trend in % Growth YoY at 51% mid-year.

There are concerns that Blackberry and Cylance would become a threat. A quick look at Cylance shows that the company was founded in 2012 and estimated FY18 total revenue was $130 M (Bloomberg). Crowdstrike was founded in 2011 and had FY18 total revenue $250 M. These results gives evidence in the gravitation of customers. Is Cylance, therefore, a threat? Does not appear so. Forbes 2018 Cloud 100 ranks Crowdstrike #6 and Cylance #18 amongst all cloud sectors as judged by 34 cloud company CEO’s in revenue, sales growth, valuation and culture:

Forb’s 2018 Cloud 100: https://www.forbes.com/cloud100/#70402e255f94

(I apologize if the formatting is difficult to read.)

6 Likes

Correction:

Crowdstrike has a total of 3,789 customers as reported in Q2FY20 (vs erroneous Q2FY19). This in line with their trend in % Growth YoY at 51% mid-year.

Don’t worry guys, I usually don’t have much to say, so my redundancy will be limited. grr…

Using this formula, we see an improving trend in part of their OpEx efficiency:

Magic Number
Q1 FY19 0.85
Q2 FY19 1.03
Q3 FY19 0.85
Q4 FY19 1.3
Q1 FY20 1.06
Q2 FY20 0.82

Trend? I don’t see it in the above numbers.

Chris

3 Likes

Customer acquisition cost (CAC) is affected by churn where debt in incurred from sales and marketing from lost business. Crowdstrike began seeing traction from Q4FY19 with QoQ CAC improvement 1.3, 1.06, 0.82 sequentially.

As Crowdstrike become deeper imbedded by increased module adoption, churn should decrease. We can see the inverse of Magic Number by increased % QoQ module adoption/sales 16%, 26%, and 50%.

Well the last two quarters Crowdstrike grew number of customers by 543 and 730 (equal to the number that they grew all last year)

I guess I should have clarified this and given more color. They are up a little over 50% already over last year, with the number of adds increasing each quarter. If that continues they will finish with roughly 225% of the number of customers they had last year (up 125%). [1.50 x 1.50 = 2.25].

Best,

Saul

8 Likes

Hi Saul,

Year-over-year we achieved 104% ARR growth, 98% subscription revenue growth and 94% total revenue growth which was above the high end of our guidance.

That ARR growth seems a little anemic. I wonder if their sales team is working more on growing the customer base rather then upselling the product? Their subscription revenue and revenue growth is very good.

Andy

Hi Andy,

Welcome to the wonderful world of SaaS. Who would have thought that we’d ever see the day when we’d say that 104% growth of anything “seems a little anemic” ? :grinning::grinning::grinning:

Saul

11 Likes

very interesting discussion… thanks for sharing views, Saul and rest…

I did hold a small position in CRWD going into earnings and actually sold that after earnings pop…

While all the numbers look really great in isolation, reading them as (1) trend over few quarters and (2) in context of valuation (PS of 38 on trailing basis); they do not look as impressive to me.

As Saul said, I did read the earnings differently…
First of all, the $12M sequential up was a bit underwhelming… but more importantly the ARR growth of 104% with a $ based net retention rate at 120% tells me that the contract cycles are getting longer and additional products probably are lower value than their flagship product… even though their number of customers growth is phenomenal, I would want to see that really resulting into sustained ARR growth rather than decelerating… see the last 7 quarter ARR growth rate from Jan 2018 quarter…
140%, 140%, 131%, 125%, 121%, 114%, 104%

Again great story, great numbers in isolation but sustained deceleration, large negative FCF and very high PS makes me very uncomfortable holding this.

nilvest

9 Likes

Nilvest, I think it’s worth noting CRWD is not reporting the actual net retention rate, they are merely saying it’s “over 120%.” 120% is their goal for net retention rate.

1 Like