CRWD - updated ARR guidance 2024-2026

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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Crowdstrike provided updated ARR guidance at this week’s investor conference.

It set a fiscal 2026 annual recurring revenue target of at least $5 billion versus its prior projection of over $3 billion, which it now expects to achieve by fiscal 2024 rather than fiscal 2025.

So here are the numbers (including guidance)


        **Revenue($M)   ARR($M)**
2019        481       601
2020        875      1050
2021       1452      1731
2022       2163est
2023
2024                 3000est
2025 
2026                 5000tgt

est=company guidance
tgt=company target

Many unknowns in this table, but the trajectory sure looks bullish for both CRWD and cybersecurity stocks.

Long CRWD (9% position)

Beachman (@iwannabeontheb2)

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Wanted to note that CY 2021 with 1731M ARR was actually their FY 2022. So, when they say FY 24 $3B and FY 26 $5B they mean CY 23, and CY 25 respectively. All your numbers are basically advanced by a year.
While this is still a CAGR of only 30% I am expecting that they should beat this quite comfortably.

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@Texmex…thanks for correcting me on this.

Here is the updated table with a little more info:


        **Revenue($M)   ARR($M)   RPO($M)**
2020        481       601       764
2021        875      1050      1360
2022       1452      1731      2265
2023       2163est   2596bs    3374bs
2024                 3000est
2025                 
2026                 5000tgt

I corrected the fiscal years for each row.
I added the annual RPO numbers…I trust RPO more than I trust ARR for forward revenue projections.
est = guidance provided by CRWD
tgt = target number provided by CRWD
bs = Beachman’s estimate (not what you were thinking, you scallywag!)

ARR has generally been about 20% ahead of annual revenues.
RPO has generally been about 30% ahead of ARR.

Therefore it likely that by end of FY2023 (current calendar year), ARR could hit about $2,596M and RPO will likely be about $3,374M.

As Saul rightly pointed out in his other post, CRWD is taking us for fools by presenting us with such low-ball $3B and $5B ARR numbers for FY2024 and FY2026 respectively.

And their Fed business pipeline is just getting warmed up where they currently have a less than 1% penetration.

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