Currency stuff-DXY=109 Look out below

The US Dollar index is currently 108.75 - a height it hasn’t hit since its trip down over two decades ago when it touched 1020 (a level not seen at that point since the mid-1980’s). This has been a 17% increase in a year. (A superstitious person would think there was a twenty year cycle).

So, what happens on a macroeconomic level?

This is caused (this time, at least) by rising interest rates attracting funds to the US dollar, causing (supply/demand) it to rise compared to other currencies.

Profit/sales of sales abroad (in foreign currencies), when rationalized into USD, show much lower values on the annual reports of international companies, causing stock prices to decline.

Gold goes down in price when compared to USD

Prices of foreign goods imported (sans tariffs) go down, but the increase in relative US labor and material will tend to increase abroad creating a headwind for US exports. The only currency which, so far, has shown some resilience is the Swiss Franc.

It becomes more expensive, as interest rates rise, to finance a purchase of real estate, but ultimately inflation should eventually cause real estate prices in the US to increase.

Tourism abroad, when purchased from foreign sources will tend to reduce in price. Foreign equities will tend to be inexpensive compared to their US twins.

If the Fed is successful (and they only have a couple of years to pull that off before they get embroiled in election politics), remember that what goes up, generally goes down and vice versa.

At some point, the interest on bonds will make them a buy and the low price US stocks will reach (when times are scariest) will make them a good buy as well.

For those living abroad with a USD income, this is a windfall as the USD rises, but for those in the US, the inflation rate is currently at 9% and interest rates are rising meaning that they USD holdings are losing purchasing power domestically.

For now, the field is being set up for a massive financial bloodletting in the US (and abroad).

Jeff

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So, what happens on a macroeconomic level? This is caused (this time, at least) by rising interest rates attracting funds to the US dollar, causing (supply/demand) it to rise compared to other currencies.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the euro makes up 58% of DXY. So, more than half of the strong dollar is due to the weak (very weak) euro. However the US economy does in the coming year, the European economy is going to do worse.

DB2

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-Errata: I just noticed that, in the first line of the OP, I said the high of the DXY (US Dollar index) was 1020. That should have read 120.

Link:

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

Jeff

So, what happens on a macroeconomic level?

Jeff,

I challenge a lot of males my age and older who are set on supply side econ. I mean I do that in person.

The supply siders are loosening up.

The logic is to bring back a lot of industry to the US. Main thing future factories are more highly automated. Labor is the expense of managers, shippers, and salespeople. Healthcare is the big ticket item we need to change.

If we reform…(progress)…we can build an incredibly wealthy society.

Do you want that society? Or just to keep most Americans are cheap labor?

I think hearts want that great society.

None of this is captured in a three month period.