Datadog
Datadog
RPO isn’t a great leading indicator either. In boom times like 2021, Datadog’s customers were signing increasingly longer contracts, so RPO was growing even faster than revenue. This year customers are exceedingly cautious, so RPO is barely budging. The faster RPO growth (then) didn’t portend a faster revenue growth in the future (now). In fact, revenue grew slower this quarter than the last few. “Current RPO” or “cRPO” is the RPO that will be recognized in the next 12 months. But even with that, a slow down could hypothetically just mean that customers want to pay month to month, so they’re not signing contracts even for 1 year. (I don’t know if Datadog even allows this which is why I said hypothetically.)
Thanks for providing a nice reminder about looking for the proper context when analyzing the numbers. Perhaps they’ll start using an ARR type metric in the future that could give us a bit more insight. It’s also often difficult to glean elements out of the prior conference call and use what they say in the current conference call and conclude that there was some nefarious behavior.
So unless there is something egregious, we need to go with the numbers.
Here are some:
Market Cap & TTM Market Cap to TTM Sales Ratio Ranges
Qtr MCHi MCLo MCClose P/MCHi P/MCLo P/MCCl
Sep-19 $4,305 $3,165 $3,901 13.9 10.2 12.6
Dec-19 $14,432 $9,018 $14,013 39.8 24.9 38.6
Mar-20 $16,429 $9,467 $16,393 38.8 22.3 38.7
Jun-20 $30,769 $10,931 $29,674 64.0 22.7 61.7
Sep-20 $32,673 $21,965 $30,909 60.6 40.7 57.3
Dec-20 $35,918 $24,252 $35,535 59.5 40.2 58.9
Mar-21 $40,885 $25,514 $40,343 61.0 38.0 60.1
Jun-21 $36,764 $23,869 $36,695 48.1 31.2 48.0
Sep-21 $51,899 $34,921 $51,217 59.0 39.7 58.2
Dec-21 $69,063 $46,565 $67,986 67.1 45.3 66.1
Mar-22 $63,845 $39,368 $60,354 53.5 33.0 50.6
Jun-22 $54,832 $27,975 $53,990 40.1 20.5 39.5
At $115/share, the current multiple is just a tick under 30. The ratio almost went down to 20 in the June quarter, which is the lowest low since their first quarter as a public company. I think we’ve seen the bottom in the June quarter, and the multiple will gradually improve from here as inflation eases and investors shift from freaking out to getting greedy again.
Revenues, Customers & Revenues per Customer
Month Rev RevTTM Cust SeqGrth Rev/Cust >100k SeqGrth
Mar-18 39.7 5,872
Jun-18 45.7 6,440 9.7%
Sep-18 51.1 7,008 8.8% 377
Dec-18 61.6 198 7,676 9.5% 25,805 453 20.2%
Mar-19 70.1 228 8,391 9.3% 27,221 508 12.1%
Jun-19 83.2 266 9,106 8.5% 29,207 594 16.9%
Sep-19 95.9 311 9,821 7.9% 31,641 727 22.4%
Dec-19 113.6 363 10,536 7.3% 34,432 858 18.0%
Mar-20 131.2 424 11,391 8.1% 37,220 960 11.9%
Jun-20 140.0 481 12,246 7.5% 39,259 1,015 5.7%
Sep-20 154.7 540 13,100 7.0% 41,189 1,082 6.6%
Dec-20 177.5 603 14,200 8.4% 42,498 1,228 13.5%
Mar-21 198.5 671 15,200 7.0% 44,129 1,406 14.5%
Jun-21 233.5 764 16,400 7.9% 46,604 1,570 11.7%
Sep-21 270.5 880 17,500 6.7% 50,292 1,800 14.6%
Dec-21 326.2 1,029 18,800 7.4% 54,723 2,010 11.7%
Mar-22 363.0 1,193 19,800 5.3% 60,266 2,250 11.9%
Jun-22 406.1 1,366 21,200 7.1% 64,427 2,420 7.6%
While the number of customers is increasing pretty consistently, the growth in the number of larger customers (>$100k ARR) has slowed down a bit. On the conference call they mentioned some caution in customer spending, which most likely explains this. Nevertheless, they don’t see anything like the 2020 COVID slowdown.
Guidance
QGuide Mar Jun Sep Dec
2019 102
2020 118 135 144 163
2021 186 212 247 291
2022 337 378 412
REV Mar Jun Sep Dec
2017 18.4 21.9 26.7 33.7
2018 39.7 45.7 51.1 61.6
2019 70.1 83.2 95.9 113.6
2020 131.2 140.0 154.7 177.5
2021 198.5 233.5 270.5 326.2
2022 363.0 406.1
% Beat Mar Jun Sep Dec
2019 11%
2020 11% 4% 7% 9%
2021 7% 10% 10% 12%
2022 8% 7%
*This is the growth of the guide from prior quarter actual*
GuideGrth Mar Jun Sep Dec
2019 6.4%
2020 3.8% 2.5% 2.8% 5.4%
2021 4.8% 6.8% 5.8% 7.6%
2022 3.2% 4.1% **1.4%**
Clearly, the sequential growth guide is lower than it has ever been, even lower than the COVID quarters. If, as the company says, purchasing conservatism is not as pronounced as the COVID quarters, why is the guide relatively low? Could it be that we’re starting to hit the law of large numbers? Could it be that customers have more control over their usage now than they did then? Or could it be management’s attempt to be even more conservative with guidance? I don’t know. But given the relatively low valuation and the very long runway for growth, I think it doesn’t matter too much.
If they do a double digit beat (>=10% as I think they will do), this will help us better understand what is going on.
DJ