No doubt there isn’t scientific consensus, I’ll concede that artic amplification effects still need further study. Climate science is a fickle thing.
And…heat-related mortality has increased far from the tropics.
While heat-related mortality is increasing, cold-related mortality is decreasing. I wonder at what point we’ll reach the temperature-related mortality equilibrium, when we can be equally concerned about both cold and heat. Interesting three part article -
So what, right?
What does this say about climate change and global warming?
I bet nothing.
Having excess deaths from cold and from heat can both be true.
Global warming can also be true.
Maybe climate change has inceased variance in temperature.
Maybe humans are physiologically more susceptible to colder temps than warmer temps given the range of temps on earth and where humans live and how much of the year is cold versus warm relative to human body temp of 98 F.
Aren’t typical ranges of air temps across the earth where humans live much lower than human body temp? And so on average already well below human body temp?
And so excess death from cold might naturally be higher than that from heat under pre-warming baseline.
Maybe we measure these things better in colder climes, where more of the developed world lives.
Maybe the years for which we have data are a tiny drop in the ocean of history.
Maybe the studies are not a random sample of life-threatening temperature events.
Maybe the studies presented here are not representative of such studies.
It’s a long list.
Both are bad, I think we can agree. And we’re running a “what if” experiment right now, in real time. “What if we warm the Earth by 2+ deg C?”. We’re finding out. It appears the Gulf Stream is faltering. I don’t recall the details, but I remember reading some other ocean currents are changing. Drought in the western USA (and probably other places). New record highs. Sea levels are rising, which will displace at least 1B people (we -as a species- tend to congregate near shorelines). I read a year or so ago that they expect parts of the Middle East to become uninhabitable due to excessive heat. Etc.
And technology won’t save many of those folks. Heat pumps work by circulating a fluid though coils that is hotter than the outside air (to release heat), and then through thermodynamic processes is cooler than the inside air (absorbing heat). If you can’t make the fluid/gas hotter than the outside air, it ceases to function. Evap coolers aren’t effective at higher temperatures either. When you start getting to about 130F, you’re reaching the limit. For reference, the all-time high in Phoenix was 122F. We often reach 118-120F the past few summers. They’re projecting some areas in the Middle East will be hitting 130F regularly within a couple of decades. (Death Valley holds the record at 134F as of time of this post.)
We’re likely to see a migration of people away from flooding shores and hot spots (and maybe cold spots, too). It won’t be sudden, likely, but I don’t think anyone is ready for it. Lots of refugees, lots of demand for new housing and infrastructure (in the places receiving the migrating people), and where the arable land is will almost certainly change.
This is certainly the definition of a macro-economic risk and trend. I have no idea how one might position themselves vis a vis investment. I suspect it will start getting bad about the time I’m in the nursing home.
Some people just refuse to believe we are harming the climate, and are getting close to the point (already past?) where we can slow it or stop it. Some people just refuse to believe we are pushing the climate to a point where it is becoming difficult for human life to continue. Some people refuse to believe that Al Gore was right 30 years ago.
There was a good article in Science earlier this month by Paul Voosen.
Shifting Currents
https://www.science.org/content/article/ocean-current-warms-europe-may-be-more-resilient-feared
After decades of warnings, new data suggest the Atlantic’s vital circulation may withstand climate warming better than feared…
Yet for all the alarming headlines, most climate researchers think the AMOC is more resilient than these worst case scenarios make it seem. Emerging evidence suggests the AMOC may not have actually collapsed in the warm climates following ice ages. More detailed climate models suggest it could weaken but not collapse in the current surge of warming. And studies of the AMOC’s present behavior do not yet show any clear signs of trouble. They’re also exposing new facets of the circulation that could buffer any eventual weakening.
“The paradigm has been, if we warm and freshen these areas, we’ll get less dense water and AMOC will slow down,” says Susan Lozier, an oceanographer at the Georgia Institute of Technology. “That paradigm isn’t holding up.”
DB2
Again, why does this matter in this thread?
You haven’t provided any explanation.
Heat vs cold deaths per se implies nothing either way with respect to climate change and warming.
That could happen with zero climate change, as explained above.
And there are even more explanations on how that article and your presenting of it could find its way here.
Additional deaths due to extreme heat waves are one of the smaller causes of climate change mortality. Further, if warming reduces cold deaths, maybe it’s one of the silver linings of climate change. I was surprised that the graph I posted shows cold deaths rose as well.
Here are some estimates of deaths due to climate change, again from Gemini. The table has many flaws.
| Climate-Driven Cause | WHO (World Health Organization) Annual Projections (2030s-2050) | WEF (World Economic Forum) Cumulative Projections (By 2050) | Impact Summary & Scope Variations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floods & Storms | Included in WHO general baseline models | 8.5 Million Deaths projected by WEF | WEF identifies floods as highest risk due to infrastructure collapse. WHO focuses on coastal flooding disease spikes. |
| Droughts & Malnutrition | 95,000 deaths / year (WHO Undernutrition) | 3.2 Million Deaths projected by WEF | Both organizations link this directly to crop failure, extreme heat, and water shortages. |
| Infectious & Vector Diseases | 60,000 deaths / year (WHO Malaria), 48,000 deaths / year (WHO Diarrhea) | Included under WEF flood/drought impacts | WHO explicitly breaks down vector/waterborne data. WEF highlights mosquito range expansion. |
| Heat Waves & Stress | 38,000 deaths / year tracked by WHO | Included under WEF drought/weather events | WHO monitors direct physiological heat stress. WEF notes heat causes the largest economic toll. |
| Wildfires & Other Events | Not quantified in the WHO 250k subset | Included in overall WEF 14.5M projection | WEF includes wildfires and sea-level rise. WHO tracks air pollution separately (7M deaths/year). |
| TOTAL PROJECTIONS | WHO: ~250,000+ deaths annually | WEF: 14.5 Million cumulative deaths | WHO defines data as conservative. WEF captures systemic failures over a 30-year window. |
So WHO projects heat to cause about 15% of the climate change deaths.
He is literally trying to tell you that global warming isn’t all that bad…
Because it affects the assessment of the health impacts of global warming.
DB2
…nearly shut down—but the AMOC did not weaken as expected. Parts of the overturning circulation actually grew stronger…
Scientists have long believed that warm, salty water flowing from the Indian Ocean around the southern tip of Africa and into the Atlantic helps support one of the planet’s most important ocean circulation systems. This flow, known as Agulhas Leakage, has been considered a major contributor to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which forms part of the global ocean conveyor system…
The transition [3 million years ago] provided researchers with a useful opportunity to study how ocean circulation near South Africa and within the Atlantic responded as the climate shifted from cooler to warmer conditions.
DB2