Disney Quarterly Update

I hope no one minds if I start a quarterly update of Disney on this board, like I do with Facebook. Disney is another company I strongly believe in the long term prospects of and reported their earnings this afternoon after the market closed.

On the surface everything looks good. Real good. Via CNBC:

Disney reported reported quarterly earnings and revenue Tuesday that handily topped analysts’ expectations, as sales in its film unit blew past estimates.

The media giant posted fiscal-first-quarter earnings of $1.63 per share on $15.24 billion in revenue.

Its studio sales came in at $2.7 billion, topping estimates of $2.32 billion, according to StreetAccount. Revenue of $6.3 billion for its media and networks unit also beat expectations.

Analysts had expected Disney (DIS) to report earnings of about $1.45 a share on $14.75 billion in revenue, according to a consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters.

Read the whole thing at http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/disneys-earnings-an…

Revenue was up in every single of the company’s four main segments:
+8% in Media Networks
+9% in Parks
+46% in Studio Entertainment (Star Wars!)
+8% in Consumer Products

Operating Income was up in three of the four segments:
-6% in Media Networks
+22% in Parks
+86% in Studio Entertainment (Star Wars!!!)
+23% in Consumer Products

Of course, the focus is all on ESPN, so as of right now, shares are down in AH trading because of the decrease in income in the media networks segment. Here are some other numbers I look at:


Revenue (billions)		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4
2013				11.341		10.554		11.578		11.568
2014				12.309		11.649		12.466		12.389
2015				13.391		12.461		13.101		13.512	
2016				15.244

EPS (non-GAAP)		        Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4
2013				0.79		0.79		1.03		0.77
2014				1.04		1.11		1.28		0.89
2015				1.27		1.23		1.45		1.20
2016				1.63

Cash Flow (billions)		Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4
2013				0.559		1.586		2.723		1.748
2014				0.554		1.826		2.047		2.042
2015				0.857		2.011		1.652		2.124
2016				0.956

Current (2016 Q1 Earnings):

Revenue Growth (billions)
2015 Q1 TTM Revenue = 49.895
2016 Q1 TTM Revenue = 54.318
Year Over Year Revenue Growth = 8.85%, previous quarter’s Rev Growth = 7.48%

Non-GAAP EPS Growth
2015 Q1 TTM Earnings = 4.55
2016 Q1 TTM Earnings = 5.51
Year Over Year EPS Growth = 21.1%, previous Q EPS Growth = 19.2%

P/E = (Check Current Price) 92.32/5.51 = 16.75

1YPEG = 16.75/21.1 = 0.79

Conclusion: This is by far the cheapest I’ve ever seen Disney stock. Meanwhile, both revenue and earnings growth continue to accelerate. Because media entertainment is their largest business segment, everyone remains focused on ESPN expenses and the possible threat of cord cutters. They seem to lose sight of the fact that the other business segment are growing so strongly that they are quickly closing that gap.

Sure studio entertainment was up because of Star Wars, but that was not a one-time event. Five more Star Wars movies are planned in the coming years and you can be sure more will be coming after that.

Matt
MasterCard (MA) Ticker Guide
Long DIS
See all my holdings at http://my.fool.com/profile/CMFCochrane/info.aspx

49 Likes

This is an interesting one. It seems no one wants to own stocks anymore and any excuse to sell is a good one for any company that is less than perfect to be hammered.

I think the ESPN thing is a real issue. I used to love ESPN years ago. Now the content just sucks 90% of the time. All the highlights are available online too, no need to wait for them to get to your game or show you the top 10 plays of the day. Any good segment they run will be available online too.

It’s interesting to see theme park revenue eclipse media network revenue too, confirming that trend. I do think they will find some way to monetize a streaming service, but they need better content and to have a nice selection of live sports to make it worthwhile.

I think TV is dead. There are better alternatives out there. If I want to watch a show I’d rather buy the episodes on some service (Hulu, netflix, itunes, etc) than need a $100+/month tv subscription, especially when I barely turn it on.

No position, but it is getting to an interesting price. Worth keeping an eye on for me

2 Likes

If I want to watch a show I’d rather buy the episodes on some service (Hulu, netflix, itunes, etc) than need a $100+/month tv subscription, especially when I barely turn it on.

Another reason to like Disney is they have part ownership in Hulu. And, they make multiple great shows they are selling to Netflix.

Fool on,

mazske

Long Disney and all companies listed in my profile

1 Like

Another reason to like Disney is they have part ownership in Hulu. And, they make multiple great shows they are selling to Netflix.

Thats a good point. Forgot about that. I don’t think its big enough to offset ESPN loss yet, but the response at 85 so far is encouraging.

I’m being very stingy before adding new equity positions these days. May buy a first chunk around 80, a second around 60ish, and a final piece around 40-45 if everything crashes. Otherwise fine to wait and see for me. I don’t think there’s any rush at the moment

Hi, CMFCochrane!

I’m going back and reading some posts that made the “Post of the day” blog, and I stumbled back on this. I had read it before, but I didn’t notice that you threw in the 1YPEG for DIS: 0.79.

While this is in the good sub-1 territory, it’s nowhere near, for a few examples, SWKS (.26), LGIH (.2), SKX (.33) or INBK (.12). But, as you pointed out, it’s incredibly cheap for Disney historically.

This brings up something that’s been on my mind: valuation and risk. Clearly DIS has a future that’s much more certain than any of these companies. But how much is that certainty worth?

I don’t have any definitive answers yet, but I thought it was an interesting enough quandry to bump this thread and lay it out.

Thanks for the good work on DIS.

  • Bear
2 Likes