DLTR

Cudos to Jim for this fantastic call. I went all in a little less than a year ago on Dollar Tree, and I don’t think I’ve ever had such a quick 100% return on anything during my whole investing life. It made sense to me then, and still does, I think, especially in light of recent observations from Mohamed El-Erian in podcast below. He’s not too sanguine for a soft landing or the outlook on inflation. Clearly, the Fed, in his view, missed the boat and made a severe policy error in declaring inflation as “transitory.” Worth a listen, if you have a half hour.

https://unlocked.fm/episodes/nine-point-one-with-mohamed-el-…

As to DLTR, any thoughts from you all, and Jim of course, on the stock going going forward? Buy, sell, trim or hold? I rarely sell stuff, especially my Berkshire, as I tend to run with my winners. Too greedy maybe?

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As to DLTR, any thoughts from you all, and Jim of course, on the stock going going forward?
Buy, sell, trim or hold? I rarely sell stuff, especially my Berkshire, as I tend to run with my winners.
Too greedy maybe?

Random thoughts which may or may not have merit—

I like it as a long term hold.
It’s an unusual stock. Despite the steady progress of the business, like its competitors it seems to go in and out of fashion quite frequently.
The ratio of the typical two year high to two year low is unusually wide.
My habit is to buy it when it’s cheap, ride it till it’s expensive again, sell, and repeat.
Rather unusually, I’ve done two full rounds of that with DG so far this year, their obvious peer.

But…I would almost certainly be richer today if I has simply loaded up on Dollar Tree the first time it was really cheap and forgotten about it.
So no, I don’t think you’re greedy. It has been, in my view, a “punch ticket” kind of holding.
(despite their one big ill-advised acquisition)

It’s a really stupid habit, but I’m probably not the only one who has it:
when I sell out of something planning to get back in when it’s cheaper, I sometimes just plain forget about it.
Next time I’ll sell most of it, not all of it : )
When it’s staring you in the face in your portfolio, it’s harder to forget.

I don’t have any DLTR at the moment, as it has returned to the relatively expensive end of its range.
I currently have that money in Carmax, which is at the cheap end of its range : )

Jim

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