Does anyone really think the Dollar can be replaced?

To replace the dollar it would take to many countries to agree, Russia and China are never going to be the reserve currency. Nobody would trust them.

** While BRICS leaders have expressed a desire to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar , its domination is indisputable. Notwithstanding its drop to a 20-year low in official FX reserves in late 2022, the U.S. dollar remains paramount in global trade, featuring in nearly 90% of global forex dealings.**

Andy

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That sounds right, unless of course we, as a collective, do something so stupid nationally as to lose that trust.

Pete

The real question is whether these nations, with their diverse agendas and priorities, can truly unite under a single currency banner.

I’ll say. About the only thing these countries have in common is that they’re not us. Europe, with a common - if fractious heritage has managed (sort of) to put together a common currency and has lowered trade barriers, but it’s telling that even with that 90% of world trade runs in dollars.

Probably the most important thing in a currency is stability, which is why BRICS, the Euro, Bitcoin, Ether and all the other pretenders are just a sideshow distraction. I’m not saying it can never change, once upon a time it was the Pound, and before that the Real, but these things last centuries and end only when the entire empire comes crashing down.

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I wouldn’t bet against the US dollar but everything can be replaced. The Spanish doubloon was replaced. The English pound sterling was replaced. It happens once the economy cannot support the currency. Don’t fret about who can can join with whom, fret about the American Empire’s economy surviving. The sanctions on China show that the American Empire fears China’s rise. Follow the money. Offshoring to China meant no fear of China. On shoring shows the opposite.

The Captain

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It is worth pointing out that if you squint, the Eurozone is kinda, sorta on the same page politically so the Euro stumbles along okay, but BRICS aren’t even close to be seeing eye-to-eye politically. It is maybe possible for there to be a BRICS currency for trade between BRICS countries, but there is absolutely no way there could be a common currency they would all use internally. Not possible.

On top of that, you need liquidity. So whatever your currency of choice is, there needs to be a metric starship load of it to facilitate international trade. There is currently one and only one currency with enough liquidity to do that. The BRICS New Development Bank makes loans mostly in dollars because only dollars are available in the quantities they need to borrow.

And on top of that, everything is already priced in dollars. You can show up tomorrow with the greatest whiz-bang currency of all time and it wouldn’t help. Everyone needs dollars because everyone uses dollars.

I imagine that will change eventually, but not soon.

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In the short term, I’m not too worried.

In the long term, I’ll be dead.

Heck, even the Russians don’t want India’s currency when they sell them oil. And no one wants Russian currency. And even China doesn’t trust China.

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Largely this. The fall of the US economy would proceed a change in reserve currency. In other words, The loss of the dollar as THE reserve currency would be the least of our worries at the time of the switch.

What I find interesting about both the pound and the doubloon; they both coincided with major wars.

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We are getting out of China happily. That will really reduce their reliance on the USD.

I knew we could solve this problem.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

adding

I have to say I have my mother’s ability to see solutions where others do not. She could have been an Irish politician.

I think that the problem here was that Russia could not convert India’s currency into the US dollar due to sanctions

Gold could replace the US dollar but ir would need a massive revaluation, which would be nice for me :grinning:

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We did allow them dollars for oil. There was a headline last spring on that. With a touch of angst, I noted it.

I do not want China or Russia to be reliant on USD.

How? You keep making this claim but there is not enough gold in all the world to make that even possible.

There is over $2T in US dollars in circulation. Depending on your source, the total world value of mined gold is just $10T - that includes all the gold in jewelry, electronics, etc. The US would have to buy up 1/5th of all the gold in the world. Simply not feasible.

image

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I think the hope and prayer for those collecting/hoarding gold is that the price will “normalize” to $50 or $60K an ounce… If that happens, D will become very rich. It’s nice to have dreams, isn’t it :grinning:

That’s about the only way that gold would actually replace the dollar.

Pete

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And lead could replace Gold. :rofl:

Andy

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Exactly. Nobody wants Rupees.

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Not even India…

I suspect so unless there was a massive revaluation or we had a gold backed currency that was fully convertable, as was the case up to 1971

I don’t see how we could have ‘a gold backed currency that was fully convertible’ without a massive revaluation. Period.

Pete

How is that massive revaluation supposed to happen? And by whom? Would the US Government just suddenly decree “gold is now worth $60k per ounce”?

I started working in 1989. A dollar today was $2.48 back then. But my salary has gone up about 8X in that same time. What, exactly, is the problem that gold backed currency are supposed to solve?

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With fractional reserve banking fully convertible is not possible as money is created out of thin air.

The Captain

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Thin air is the pejorative for it. The printing of dollars is very carefully studied and calculated. Mistakes happen and overshoot the mark. Still and all the wide swings in gold would drive you nuts. And for what a doorstop?