I thought about closing shorts last night…so bummed.
I am still up YTD, but I hate (HATE!!!) giving back any gains. Drives me bonkers.
Oh well.
A bank or two collapsed. Inflation still hot. Fed still likely raising rates.
But time for a BMR…why the heck not.
Interesting to see DDOG and friends not participating in the rally much (yet).
I think I will just suck it up for now.
I could go crazy trying to go long/short/long/short on every market swing.
Instead I think I leave my equity shorts on, and perhaps opportunistically try a call/put here and there when I feel an extreme move just happened, and mean reversion is likely.
So. I do nothing. Blah.
Dreamer
Closed the ndx short, to raise cash in face of possible BMR continuing.
Dreamer
100% cashola. At YTD highs (same as a few days back) and taking a step back to assess. Market feels dangerous…like a wounded animal. If extreme moves up, then probably put shorts back on. If extreme moves down, will look for 52 wk lows in companies I like to buy (see Happy Targets thread) and/or may play small index options off extreme moves in either direction.
Another thought I had was options on the Happy Target prices a few months out, if recession seems inevitable but market climbs a bit in short-term.
Dreamer
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I am suffering withdrawal, I can tell.
What is the point of looking at port balance when you are in all cash? Duh.
And weirdly I feel bad if market goes up or goes down…because I had no position either way.
Have to build up some patience and wait for either those entry prices I want, or higher upward moves that make more sense to put shorts back on.
Options? Again…if we are in the Meh Chop Zone (officially now the “MCZ”) then which direction do I choose? If no strong or obvious direction I think things will go, then how to you place a bet? And that is all it would be…a gambling bet. So, no…not at moment.
Thought hard about SPG at $105 this morning, with strong divvy yield. My former 2021 goal of $135 popped into my mind. Do I think it will get there, in a post-recession world? Yes. When will recession happen? I don’t know. Will there be a recession? I don’t know. What will price fall to, if a recession? Less than $106, I am fairly sure.
So I do…nothing. Blah.
Dreamer
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well that was such a nice strong rally, that I decided to short it!
shut up, Axl Rose…we don’t need any patience here!
Dreamer
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New YTD high…not much, just about .5% more to +6.7%, but given last year’s grind, anything positive is welcome!
About 75% cash, 25% short SPY
Enjoy the weekend!
Dreamer
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Lot of open threads here. I’ll just put 'em all here.
First of all, it was kind of a crappy week. But I just looked at it as buying opportunity. It seems pretty obvious that my target date for fully invested is too early. I am 18.4% cash and 2% very short term treasuries. Since I am investing for 2x or 3x over two to three year horizon, it won’t matter much whether I am 80% or 90% or 100% invested at the end of the month. In addition to the cash, I have some positions in companies that are not on my list of 20 so I have some flexibility there. I am building smaller positions in “moon shots” and will use one of the 20 as a basket of 3 or 4 of these with which I have the fantasy of 10x.
I don’t think that presenting my target prices is useful for the board because those targets are so heavily influenced by whether I have full, partial, or small established positions. It would take new 52-week lows for me to buy more BILL, CRWD, DDOG, VFC, GLBE, SNOW or PVH. On the other hand the majority of my companies would be buys when the price is below my average price, and that is specific to my situation.
I think that Dreamer is on the right side of the market because this is all about macro and the macro prospects are just not good. Maybe I am just a crotchety old man bemoaning how things have gone to Hell and clinging to the Good Old Days. But I see the wheels coming off. I see authoritarianism coming from the Left and the Right. I see social unrest which will prompt more authoritarianism. I see mistrust of and hostility towards government and I see it well deserved. I see the normally pacifist left being hawkish and the normally hawkish right being anti-war and I see this as being fueled by purely political considerations and not by core values and reasoned geopolitical considerations. I see a Fed in unchartered water due to its purposeful disregard for the dangers of unknown unknowns inherent in ZIRP and Quantitative Easing and fueled by arrogance and ego. Hubris run wild. Not to mention the ignorance and miscalculation of the geopolitical “experts” that turned the great victory of my generation over the Soviet Union into a major power confrontation and tank battles on the European plain. Of course I have a blue collar, west coast prejudiced view of the Ivy League dominated State Department which despite repeated failure still engages in nation building insanity. What to do? As they say, this is the water we swim in. If all goes to Hell, it won’t matter if we are 100% cash or 100% invested. If all doesn’t go to Hell, there will be a bull market. Things will resolve and get better and the market will react in advance. So I am nearly finished with my portfolio. We haven’t even looked at DW’s IRA since we moved it to Interactive back in November. I see messages from time to time about shareholders meetings and proxies and notices of dividends having been paid. We are here in the Philippines where we can essentially live on air. We have hard, un-levered, cash flow generating assets in the States that will probably not be confiscated in the name of equity–at least not in my lifetime. Perhaps DW might see that day. So, I soldier on and ignore Fox and MSNBC, find vestiges of “truth” wherever I can find it. I should probably spend more time immersed in literature instead of scientific inquiry–particularly now that unbiased science is scarce and facts are declared by fiat. Truly a dark time has descended on the scientific community. But it is Sunday morning. Relax.
GLTA,
KC
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moved to 100% cash temporarily, in case stupid rally commences today. Would rather short from higher.
If market plummets, may put shorts back on, depending on how hawkish Powell was.
Dreamer
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KC, thanks for the pictures.
If THIS is what you see in the morning when you open your eyes, you shouldn´t be afraid of the End of the World.
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Although he is a SF fan, Dreamer is (almost) always right.
I´m up a lot with FSLR, but that´s the only good thing about my portfolio.
Nevertheless, I manage to sleep quite well despite the significant (temporary 
) losses.
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I have my limit orders in…if we can pop just a bit more from here, they should start kicking in (resumption of a SPY short and a SPY put).
Keeping an eye on NVDA…let’s see if it can get close to 300, then may take a small put flyer. Right now, the fomo is strong with AI.
Dreamer
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shorting the rip…fading the pop…knee-capping the mountain-climber…uhm…you get the idea.
Increased the shorts!
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and just like that, new YTD high by a couple nickels…
day is still young though, but the lack of follow-thru on the recent pops gives me a bit of confidence that it is all just blustery nonsense disguised as frosting on the gingerbread house of cards.
my little puts (less than 1% allocation combined) are up about 15%+ already, but those fluctuate wildly.
As usual, I have some undefined internal “take profits!” meter that kicks in based on Time and Gains. If I get decent gains really really fast, I typically book them early and call it a day. If trade goes sideways or even against me, I am apt to either sit in for the longer haul or just exit at breakeven if it lingers too long. Sometimes the macro sentiment sways me in either case too.
glta,
Dreamer
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pocketed some more nickels…
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Not a great week over here. I did not record my week ago level, but in last two weeks I went from +1.2% to - 2.7% for YTD. 2% per week loss gives me no bragging rights. I did make 27 little buys on those 10 market days. Except for UPST, there were no companies that are discussed here. My only win was that I purchased $10 puts on AFRM on Wednesday and covered them on Thursday and cleared $356.77. That is called a passing of flatulence in a windstorm. But, take your victories where you find them.
18.1% cash, 2.24% treasuries.
Also went to a funeral today and it wasn’t mine. Did AGT split squats and primal squats and cossack squats this week to add to the pushups. Put up a dead hang bar. 5 BEST Bodyweight Exercises for INCREDIBLE Mobility - YouTube
Actually I just like to loo… er… listen to her accent. POMO for the Octo.
KC
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Also went to a funeral today and it wasn’t mine. Did AGT split squats and primal squats and cossack squats this week to add to the pushups. Put up a dead hang bar
——
Hang bar is great!
I do every morning and generally my shoulders dont give me issues anymore.
All that stuff you listed is great…well done!
Dreamer
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Reduced my SPY shorts to a 30% allocation
Rest cash
Market may go BMR for a bit…will see. Content to ride out the shorts as I think a new bottom is inevitable. Just don’t know if it will be April or Summer or Fall, etc…
In meantime, will look to play extreme moves in either direction. Not going perma-long until a true capitulation.
Dreamer
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Market has a pulse premarket. Yesterday I got a 20% pop on earnings for PVH (retail, Hilfiger, Calvin Klein, Olga), and that dragged up VFC (Vans, Northface, Jansport). Imagine that, people buying stuff! AFRM up premarket. Gotta crush that consumer animal spirit. Do I hear 6%? No cuts 'til 2025? 
Need some pain.
Did I mention that I hate this market?
I bought some DOCS yesterday, and AFRM at $9.48. Buy the dips, valuation be damned.
KC
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Good week, no conviction. Gained 8.3% to make the year green, +5.6%. 15.2 % cash.
I added three test positions, Monday, Sprout Social, and Trade Desk. Sort of broke evenk kon those. During the week , bought DOCS twice, (-1.4, + 5.1%), AFRM (+8.9, +12.5, +18.9%), STEM (+12.8, +12.7%).
Just wait for some bad inflation or jobs news or some statement from a Fed Prez and see how things reverse. This was my target date for being fully invested and I am close. Close enough.
Buy the dips.
KC
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increased SPY shorts back up to about 50% of port.
rest in cash.
may the winds be at our backs…or whatever Kirk said.
Dreamer
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