Dreamer Corp - Port Update

Much ado here and there about SBC. I don’t have a dog in that fight. And, I don’t know what metric is commonly used. I feel that seeing a number such as 25%, 30% or more of revenue can trigger a negative response.

Bert Hochfeld, who includes a valuation analysis in nearly every post, views it from thi prism:

Last quarter stock based compensation was about 21% of revenues. This is down from prior periods, but in part the ratio declined because the company’s quarterly revenues grew by more than 73% as reported last quarter. I prefer to account for SBC by using dilution as portrayed by the increase in outstanding shares in analyzing relative valuation. The outstanding share count for XXXX had increased by a bit more than 2.5% last year.

For what its worth, compounds to 13% in 5 years.

KC

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added a tiny put bet against GLBE, which reports tomorrow morning, as they are down the least of all my watchlist stocks at moment.

They will, presumably, have guidance for Q1 but also possibly FY 2023 (or may choose to not give FY guidance). Either way, stock could pop of course, but I think odds are slightly in favor of a negative reaction than a positive one, but will see.

Tiny allocation, so only impactful with a big drop due to ER. Will know soon, since they report bmo tomorrow.

Like mgmt and company - but SHOP is their daddy and had poor guidance. Difference is that GLBE comes off a smaller base and more specific number, but will see.

Dreamer

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added tiny bets against NVDA and equal weighted version of SPY: RSP

Also - my twitter name now invokes “AI” so I am going to be, like, totally lit with new followers shortly.

Dreamer <— trend follower

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The Dreamer dancin’ in the street this morning.

Indexes down 1.5% on PCE too hot, +0.6%.

My green shoot of the day is OLED. Beat on revs, beat on earnings (remember those?) and raised dividend 16%. Revs up 16% y-o-y, earnings $1.36 versus $0.95 consensus. Of course issued dour forecast but still up a percent post and pre market. Ya takes what cha can get.

UPST broke $18. Need it in the $16’s before its a nibble.

KC

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I am now within 8% of my all-time high.
Basically I started the year about 10% off that mark, so obviously up about 2% YTD (at moment).

Doesn’t seem like a lot to celebrate, as if/when I finally get to new ATH, it basically means I took 14+ months or so to get there.

Time to make up some ground already!

Dreamer

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Well, my companies keep on doing well and get a one-day pop before the stock price gets sucked back into the market quicksand. OLED is one of those BMW, revert to mean, stocks. Ended up higher on the session by 6% on a truly dismal Wall Street Friday. Doubt that the gap up will survive to the end of the month.

Port down 1.5% for the day. Now up just 4.2% YTD. My “Saul Stock” tracker is up 10% YTD. My only bragging rights there are that the tracker is down 13% and I am up 14% since my September post, Holding Growth Stocks.

I changed direction in December and started the campaign to get fully invested. 40% in IT, SAAS, high growth, familiar names; 30% in BMW revert to mean stocks; 10% dividend payers; 20% moon shots.

Right now still 27% cash. Friday I dripped 1.4% of cash into 4 stocks. Other than that, thinking of some trading as I head to fully invested. Seems like QQQ is in a trading range, 270 to 300. Bear market rally #4? - #15 by mostlylong

KC

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Question for you guys and gals who are holding cash - where do you like to park it?

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I just use the “Retirement Sweep Deposit Account” in my IRA, plus a batch of Treasuries that mature in October of this year. Of course I utilize some of the cash to cover the puts that I sell. The premiums I shoot for are about 1% per week–a little less on the puts. Probably more like 0.8% per week on the puts for the weeks I elect to write the puts.

KC

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This sucks.
Nonsensical emotionally driven rally based on a Fed non-voting member saying something sort of dovish yesterday.

4040 was a support/ceiling before. Could crash up, but I will be correct at some point this year. May have to turn off the screens for a bit to let things play out or I will drive myself nuts.

So added some SPY puts just now. Que sera sera.

Dreamer

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:slight_smile:

Longs liked it.

From my angle, February sucked. First two days I was up +4% and up 1.7% to reach my YTD high of +14.3%. Then all downhill from there, ended at up just 4.9%.
March is o.k for the moment, up 2.4% for the month, 7.5% YTD. I’ll take it.

Now, TITWTW (This Is The Week That Was). Very busy. Monday, CRWD poked its head above my average buy price so I reduced the holding back down to 100% of targeted amount invested. Sold at 126.04. It ended the week at $131 but I am o.k. with that as I still retained a full position. The rest of Monday was all options Placed short strangles on DDOG and SNOW: DDOG at $75 and $81 (Closed $76.98); SNOW at $136 and $160 (Closed $142,14). Pocketed $874 of premiums. Then, sold put on UPST, $!6 strike (closed $18.82); Calls on AFRM, $15 strike (closed $13.86) and CRWD call, $126 strike (closed $126.04). Now after hours CRWD went up to 127.05 but I think the option closed at end of session–not sure Pocketed $342 on those. . $1,216 for options for the week. That’s a lot of rice, beans, beer and catch-of-the-day. If DW finds out she’ll grab me by the ear and haul me arse down to the mall to buy a decent pair of jeans and replacement Skechers so me little toe doesn’t stick out. We non-consuming octogenarians are Hell on retailers

I sold my small holdings of SentinelOne, ZScaler and Zoom Info. S and ZI moved on up and ZS was down after the sells. Mostly I was just reducing the number of stocks in the portfolio. I used some of the proceeds to start a very small position in PANW based on a couple of reviews from some people I follow. Those four moves equaled a tiny loss

25.0% cash +2% treasuries.

I thought the earnings last week were good. Same pattern overall, revenues and earnings above forecast, disappointing forecast. Stock prices down = buy. Generally, I bought the dips of the week:

STOCK       Price        Friday Closing
SNOW        $144.70       $142.11
UPST        $ 16.86       $ 18.82
GLBE        $ 21.28       $ 28.94           :slight_smile: 
PSTG        $ 24.83       $ 24.56
UPST        $ 16.95       $ 18.82
PSTG        $ 25.18       $ 24.56
UPST        $ 16.93       $ 18.82  

I would have purchased more UPST but I had a lot of $16 puts so that is something to think about when deciding if the puts are a good or bad idea. I missed out on $2 gains because I had 20 cent premium gains.

Dreamer and I on the teeter-totter. Short and Long, He be up, I be down. Both feeling “Market Sucks”

KC

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I bounced back with today’s plunge, obviously.
Need another good down day to make progress YTD though.

The puts were a bad idea, in retrospect, but they did serve an instructional purpose for me. Already learned a few lessons: don’t play options around ER, be far enough out (timewise) to capitalize on the eventual move I expect.

A lot can happen in two/three weeks, so who knows.

I see a screwed market, medium-term, either way:

  1. economy & inflation stay hot, Powell raises rates higher and for longer than expected. Market pukes.
  2. economy starts to falter, Powell pauses, but damage done, and hello recession. Market pukes.

Timing on either, in terms of impact to equities, is uncertain…but still feels like there “will be” a retest of 2022 lows. Just not sure if it is this month or in 1H-23 or 2H-23. Don’t think we make it to 2024 without some wild gyrations in indexes.

Dreamer

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fairly neutral/flat day.
I am up a bit over 1% YTD still, but about 1% off my earlier March high for year.

Reduced my short exposure a bit. Seems no matter how hawkish Powell gets, the yolo/fomo clowns aren’t ready to capitulate just yet, so I put cash back up to 45%. Short about 52.5% the indexes, mainly SPY and DOW, and a bit of NDX. Remaining are some puts I am going to let ride. Some expiring too soon in March, because I am, likely, totally dumb. Others in June that I feel better about.

Dreamer

thanks to public school math, i realized i was further ahead on my SPY puts than I thought. Closed them for 40% gain. Wow…when options work in your favor, it is great. Still feels too much like gambling though.

I am assuming my less than 1% combined allocation to GBLE and NVDA puts expire worthless, and so excluding them completely, I am 7.2% away from my ATH from Jan and March of 2022.

Also means I am about 3.2% up YTD…yay me!

Still about 52.5% short. Rest in cash.

Dreamer

Dear Mr. Dreamer.
When you calculate this % with options included, do you use the option market value or the option’s notional value?

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I will reply ONLY because you addressed me as “Mr.” appropriately.

I don’t know that there is a right/wrong way to do this, but I guess I am using what the actual $ value of the options are, in that moment in time, in my head. Right now, my remaining GLBE/NVDA options are neglible (under .25% allocation) so I am ignoring them altogether. I am just short index stocks at moment.

When I said I had 2.5% in options the other day, it was because of the larger SPY and RSP puts combined were worth about that much of my port at the time.

Of course, the put options really swung wildly, so if you asked me on Monday their dollar worth was much lower than when I sold them today.

No different, I guess, than your cash position % fluctuating because your stock positions went up or down drastically, even though the actual cash dollar amount didn’t change.

You can’t make money unless you are in the market, but I guess all the changing percentages is one reason I feel a momentary sense of bliss when I sell stuff, because then my dollar amounts and percentages are real and fixed…at least until my next knucklehead trade idea.

Dreamer

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I think I will be buying more UPST on Friday. Depends on the price action early in the session. I do think there is more downside to come. Looks to me as though Thursday was just a day of despair, not anything close to capitulation. Volumes not enough. But, down another 6% to sub-$15 would be satisfactory to me as long as I have $'s left to fill up at $13. I am thinking of spring cleaning the portfolio, cleaning out the sub-1% positions .(such as MDB, AYX, BRZE, etc.) to add to the likes of UPST, while maintaining cash level. I am 27% cash thanks to the Diminishing Denominator Effect. While I will adhere to the buy when you feel bleak theory, I am stretching out the time frame to be fully invested (which was end of March). Maybe September on the calendar or 260 (?) on the QQQ?

I am now up 1.0% YTD, my Saulian Index is up 2.5%. One of my bell weather stocks, VERI is now up only 13.2% versus its having plus 90% on two occasions this year. I will be looking to buy that as I have only a 50% position and if we have a risk on week, it should be profitable.

I was light on options this week and it looks like I will be adding to SNOW and DDOG. BILL has been costly, but perhaps I have learned nothing. SNOW and DDOG would still not be full positions even with the puts being exercised after Friday.

Dreamer up, I down. Risk off, risk on.

KC

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20 minutes of market left, but done caring at this point…to the stats!

Only 6.3% away from ATH set last Jan/Mar 2022.
Currently up 4.2% YTD (new high for 2023, yeah!)

Sold NVDA puts for a loss. Still sitting on worthless GLBE puts.
About 53% short the indexes, rest in cash.

If we get to SPX 3800, I may have to either pare down shorts or take off. I would rather leave profits on the table than get none at all.

Always still more comfortable being long than short. Watching for new 52 wk lows in my favorite stocks and may start buying if weakness continues next week.

glta,
Dreamer

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Ol’ KC survived the week. Might find me in the woods, digging roots and collecting leaves and snatching neighbors’ chickens by Thursday.

I’ll not be selling options this week. Currently 21% cash plus 2% treasuries. Don’t know about SVB, but mine going for $97.01 with a total gain of 1.16%. :slight_smile:
I did buy dips on Friday.

NCNO $22.24
OLED 135.91
DOCS 28.95
SPG 112.23
BILL 69.40
AFRM 10.25
VERI 5.51
UPST 15.10

Don’t know where the double space is coming from…
I intend to just spectate this week. This could go either way. Seems the Fed has to take a break and watch data come in. I would guess inflation control needs to go on back burner. Just watch job data and chill, let some results come in. Quarterly results ought to suffer and guidance be even more dampened. Which wins, micro or macro?

Schedule for being full invested was March 30. Now, not in any hurry. I have at least enough in now for when the next bull comes to town. Kinda seems like it is running a little late and I won’t miss much with that last 20% cash by staying out for a couple of quarters. Might just rearrange some deck chairs for awhile.

KC

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the walls are on fire, so of course market monkeys are bidding it.

including trying to call Bitcoin a safehaven. Oh boy.

So added small puts on SPY and BITO to fade these bounces.

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I’ll just mentioned VERI again. My first purchase was 11/9/22 at $5.07. It has made two runs $9 and %10 and has fallen back each time to the low $5’s where it is now. I had a half position and took profit on 25% of the position. It has multiples of volatility so I have a risk-on position now, would ride it up 60% (?) and take profit on half. This last buy was at $5.19 if you are keeping score at home. Market cap $200 million. “Veritone, Inc. is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) computing solutions and services. The Company’s AI operating system, aiWARE, uses machine learning algorithms or AI models,” What could go wrong, Dreamer?

KC

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