It looks like a really strong quarter! Stock up 6% AH
– Delivered 76% Net Sales Growth on Revenue of $215.5M, beats by $18.4M
– Gained 330 Basis Points of Color Cosmetics Category Share
-Gross Margin increased 570 basis points to 71%
-Adjusted EBITA up 122% or $60.4 million
-Naturium Acquisition closed 10/4
– Raises Fiscal 2024 Outlook from $802 million top line to $906 million! This means a raise from 39% top line to 57% top line YoY Growth
-FY24 EBITA Forecast raised from $174 million top line to $200 million
Adjusted diluted EPS is now expected at $2.47-$2.50 vs. $2.19-$2.22 prior. Consensus is $2.43
“We continue to deliver exceptional, consistent, category-leading sales growth,” said Tarang Amin, e.l.f. Beauty’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. “In Q2, we grew net sales by 76% and category share by 330 basis points, marking our 19th consecutive quarter of growth in each. As we look ahead, the significant whitespace we see across color cosmetics, skin care and international gives us confidence that we are in the early innings of unlocking the full potential we see for e.l.f. Beauty.”
the stock price was up about $10 after hours yesterday, but down about $3 currently. Anyone have info as to why it’s down this morning? I cannot find anything
the stock price was up about $10 after hours yesterday, but down about $3 currently. Anyone have info as to why it’s down this morning? I cannot find anything
This board RARELY follows day to day price movements. This post might even get pulled for being off topic with a ‘timing’ type of question.
My view on these things is there is ALWAYS profit taking after a run up, but they are short term daily things that should not be stressed.
I am confused as well but the market is hammering pretty much every company that reports and is not a megacap.
EL reported yesterday as too. Their earnings are declining and they guided for $2.17-2.42 EPS for this year yesterday. ELF who is growing rapidly guided for $2.47-2.50 EPS (& they are a Q closer in the FY to that guide!). The market is bidding up EL to $113/sh today while ELF sits at $92. These share prices are backwards. It should correct over the long term.
That was definitely the headline, and I just listened to the call and the excitement and momentum the leadership describe is just palpable. Tarang is awesome and so is Mandy Fields. They have a Jeff Green-like mastery of their industry coupled with a George Kurtz-like enthusiasm (without the snark as far as I can tell).
It seems like things are just getting better and better for ELF. In this same quarter (Q2) a year ago they raised the FY guide to 24% revenue growth – they ended up raising again in Q3 to 39%, and then delivering 48%! As @FoolishJeff notes above, this year they just raised FY guide to 57%. Even if you exclude the 48m from the acquired Naturium, the FY guide is still for 48% revenue growth. Imagine what they’ll raise it to in Q3, and then imagine what they’ll actually turn in for the full year!
I guess I’m just surprised not to see others raving about all this. For my part, I bumped the position up considerably yesterday as I saw the strange price action as a fantastic opportunity. I got it all the way up to 14%+ as the price sank in the morning, and then it passed Axon as the price started to rise again yesterday afternoon, so ELF is now my #1 position. Never thought I’d say that about a makeup (and skincare!) brand, but here we are.
Really excited to see what they can continue to do. They’re already talking about doubling their market share (again), and it doesn’t sound like they have an endgame – rather, they plan to continue to build the brand endlessly. That’s what I like to hear.
I am surprised that EPS non-GAAP consensus analyst estimate is only 0.49 for the next quarter. Assuming shares outstanding stay consistent (currently at 57,438,152 shares outstanding) that would mean they are targeting next quarter’s net income to come in around $28M. They just came in at $33M for this quarter and they raised revenue guidance. Does that mean analysts are thinking expenses as a percentage of revenue are going to jump next quarter? I am new to this, and I could be missing something here so please correct me if you see flaws in my logic.
It also seems strange that the analysts estimates for Fiscal Q1 and Q2 of 2024 were higher than the 0.49 estimate for Q3. In Q1, the average analyst estimate was 0.56 and 0.53 for Q2. Q1 and Q2 typically produce less revenue due to seasonality items for ELF so I would have expected Q3 EPS estimate to be higher than Q1 and Q2.
The analysts must not believe ELF’s revenue guide, which would not make any sense to me given their performance over the last year or they think expenses as a percentage of revenue are going to jump this quarter. I have not seen anything that suggests that possibility. If you feel I am missing something please share, so I can improve my analysis.
Fair point. I’m newer to researching stocks so trying to learn as much as possible and gain an understanding of why analysts feel different than many of us. If I can understand their logic and agree or disagree, it gives me more confidence in my conclusions.
To answer your questions, the consensus estimate for the past few fiscal quarters:
Q1 2024 - estimate $0.56, actual $1.10
Q4 2023 - estimate $0.20, actual $0.42
Q3 2023 - estimate $0.23, actual $0.48
Q2 2023 - estimate $0.16, actual $0.36
Q1 2023 - estimate $0.23, actual $0.39
That is an average beat of $0.27 so they have been exceeding analyst expectations. To your point. If they beat this quarter by $0.27 it would put ELF’s EPS at $0.76 for Fiscal Q3 2024.
Hi Stewaj, if you look at them individually you will notice that they come in to beat analyst estimates by roughly 100% each time 110/56, 42/20, 48/23, 36/16, etc. That is NOT a guarantee that they will do the same this time but it’s maybe an indication that they may come in at around a dollar.
Saul