Fellow Friends and Fools,
I started a small position in ELLI a few weeks or so ago and began to track the stock in my spreadsheet.
ELLI just reported earnings this evening and they blew past all estimates and guided higher for the next quarter.
Needless to say, after entering the new EPS and revenue values into the spreadsheet the 1YPEG went from 2.65 down to .54. All in a days work I guess.
The stock is trading higher in AH trading by 4.95 (7.16%) as I write this.
Some noteworthy figures:
YoY EPS growth = 135%
YoY Rev growth = 56%
P/E = 74 (a bit high, I know)
1YPEG = .54
Market Cap = $2B
As I said, I put down a very small position just to get my toe wet. I am not sure if it warrants a bigger representation yet. For that, more analysis is needed.
Comments about ELLI and whether you think it warrants a closer look are most welcome.
Best,
–Kevin
P.S. For reference, a link to the google spreadsheet is located here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H_v6WOjFi81rM3TH9ZHS…
6 Likes
Hey Kevin, there’s been a lot of discussion about ELLI on this board in the past. You might try John’s board index to dig some up.
Neil
Neil, thank you! I just checked the board index and found a few discussion threads that started around February. I’ll go back and look at these before commenting on ELLI further.
Thanks again!
–Kevin
Kevin,
IMO ELLI definitely warrants additional review. I went to update your phenomenal spreadsheet and saw that it was already done. ELLI lookin’ good. Neil is correct there is past discussion on this board. Saul was in it a year ± ago. Personally, I’m still long and lovin’ ELLI.
KLVanLiew
Hi Kevin,
I’ve owned ELLI for a while now. I think they are in a fantastic position for the following reasons.
- They are increasing their marketshare
- The total addressable market is increasing
- Once clients buy into their software/service they buy more of their services so not only are they increasing their clients rapidly but those clients are increasing how much they spend with ELLI.
ELLI and INFN are two companies that are similar in my mind. They are somewhere near the beginning of their hockey stick growth curve and have the superior product in a market that is growing rapidly. I expect that they will be fast growers for a couple of years and then slow down.
Anyways, to sum it up…excited about ELLI (and INFN)
-e
6 Likes
Owned this a while back, think it was an old Fool rec. Sold a few months ago when I thought it was getting expensive. They have since blown out earnings enough to look much cheaper the past 2 quarters even at higher prices.
It’s a great company. Have been considering it again as a new (old) position
I always mentally included it in the mix of Fannie Mae-type mortgage-related failures, but that’s probably not the right way to think about it.
Someone want to post a summary evaluation or pitch a recommendation on ELLI for benefit of the rest of us?
I took a tiny position today and then ran the numbers tonight (ready,
fire, aim!) and I'm pretty sure all of the EPS figures in the shared
spreadsheet are GAAP except for the most recent quarter, and this inflated
the growth rate.
I have:
0.25 0.19 0.16 0.32 0.27 0.38 0.33 0.48
for the past 8 quarters, from the adjusted section of the press releases.
The spreadsheet has:
$0.13 $0.08 $0.03 $0.16 $0.14 $0.20 $0.12 $0.48
It might still be a great company but I come up with an EPS growth rate of
59% TTM, and an adjusted PE of 54, making a 1YPEG of .92.
4 Likes
Chris, thanks. It’s easy to forget that all numbers should be scrutinized before taking them from the spreadsheet. I’ve updated the EPS values with your non-GAAP numbers.
Thanks again.
Best,
–Kevin