Employment numbers are fantastic again

This economy is excellent. Not for some borrowers and lenders.
The next two generations mills and zs are making out like bandits. It is their world. Both groups out number us.

Inflation is still drifting downward in an excellent labor market. Those who think labor causes inflation are very outdated. Why? Because self-centered bumblers have been messing around for decades with the US economy destroying families.

U.S. employers added a whopping 353,000 jobs in January, far more than forecasters were expecting.

Friday, February 2, 2024 8:37 AM ET
The numbers added further evidence that the economy still has plenty of steam. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent.


With all the talk about a booming economy and the effects of inflation, I took a long term look at real U.S. GDP growth. Real GDP growth can be broken into 3 periods:
1947 to 1974: about 3.9% annual growth
1982 to 2007: about 3.3% annual growth
2010 to 2023: about 2.3% annual growth

A one-parameter model is a poor fit. A 5-parameter model fits the data closely:

annual annual
growth annual growth
real growth real GDP
from to yrs GDP event population per capita
1/1/1947 1/1/1974 27 3.9% 1.5% 2.4%
1/1/1974 1/1/1982 8 2.3% inflation 1.0% 1.2%
1/1/1982 1/1/2007 25 3.3% 1.1% 2.3%
1/1/2007 1/1/2010 3 -0.1% GFC 0.9% -0.9%
1/1/2010 10/1/2023 13 2.3% 0.6% 1.7%

Real gross domestic product per capita Real gross domestic product per capita | FRED | St. Louis Fed


" In a 2004 article in the journal Nature , Freeman Dyson recounts his meeting with Fermi in 1953. Fermi evokes his friend von Neumann who, when asking him how many arbitrary parameters he used for his calculations, replied, “With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk.”


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Should be 2010 to 2021.

There is a great biography of Enrico Fermi.

“Enrico, did you really sink a Japanese Admiral?”

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